Game number 4

The score (after 3 games) is: kitwoolsey 1, juggler 2 (match to 7 points)


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Match Information

DateJuni 27, 2008
EventDavide's Spring Tournament 2008
RoundConsolation 3
PlaceFIBS
Annotatorjuggler
CommentI was to play Kit Woolsey in round 3 of the consolation of Davide's Spring Tournament 2008.

While I was looking forward to playing Kit I was also swearing under my breath why it had to be before the final ;-).

Turned out that my dice outperformed his play.

Move number 1: kitwoolsey to play 15

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X ' ' '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 5       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 167, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MID0ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/8 6/5

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/23 13/8 +0,101
  0,508 0,138 0,005 - 0,492 0,129 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 13/8 6/5 +0,080 ( -0,021)
  0,504 0,140 0,005 - 0,496 0,136 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/18 +0,056 ( -0,046)
  0,503 0,121 0,005 - 0,497 0,136 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7 +0,013 ( -0,089)
  0,485 0,136 0,005 - 0,515 0,142 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/23 8/3 -0,092 ( -0,193)
  0,462 0,127 0,005 - 0,538 0,161 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 2: juggler to play 66

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' ' '1X4X|   | '4X ' ' '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 6       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 161, juggler 167
Position ID: 0PPgATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAn7ABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 24/18(2) 13/7(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,025(Money: -0,010)
 0,496 0,136 0,006 - 0,504 0,140 0,005
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,080 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,080
3.Double, take -0,533 -0,453
Proper cube action:No double, take (29,5%)

 

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,397)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/18(2) 13/7(2) +0,401
  0,625 0,142 0,005 - 0,375 0,077 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/18 13/7(3) +0,072 ( -0,329)
  0,539 0,150 0,007 - 0,461 0,134 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 0 24/18(2) 8/2(2) -0,017 ( -0,418)
  0,513 0,125 0,005 - 0,487 0,122 0,003  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 13/7(4) -0,059 ( -0,460)
  0,495 0,158 0,008 - 0,505 0,138 0,005  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 24/18 13/7(2) 8/2 -0,090 ( -0,492)
  0,497 0,146 0,009 - 0,503 0,158 0,005  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 3: kitwoolsey to play 53

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' ' ' '1X4X|   |2O4X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 3       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   |2O3O ' ' '4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 161, juggler 143
Position ID: 4NvBwQDQ8+ABMA Match ID: MIHuABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,308(Money: -0,320)
 0,375 0,077 0,001 - 0,625 0,142 0,005
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,401 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,401
3.Double, take -0,934 -0,533
Proper cube action:No double, take (27,5%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/5 -0,356
  0,389 0,085 0,001 - 0,611 0,141 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 8/5 8/3 -0,369 ( -0,013)
  0,384 0,092 0,001 - 0,616 0,147 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/3 6/3 -0,390 ( -0,034)
  0,380 0,086 0,001 - 0,620 0,146 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/21 13/8 -0,403 ( -0,047)
  0,385 0,076 0,001 - 0,615 0,160 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/21 8/3 -0,434 ( -0,078)
  0,380 0,081 0,002 - 0,620 0,175 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 4: juggler to play 21

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' ' ' '2X4X|   |2O4X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 1       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   |2O3O ' ' '3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 153, juggler 143
Position ID: sOfBATDg28HBAA Match ID: cAnlABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 7/5 6/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,269(Money: +0,281)
 0,611 0,141 0,004 - 0,389 0,085 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,356 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,644
3.Double, take +0,180 -0,176
Proper cube action:No double, take (21,5%)

 

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,060)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 13/11 8/7 +0,335
  0,606 0,146 0,004 - 0,394 0,084 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/10 +0,311 ( -0,024)
  0,600 0,142 0,004 - 0,400 0,087 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
3 2 7/5 6/5 +0,275 ( -0,060)
  0,588 0,156 0,005 - 0,412 0,100 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11 6/5 +0,229 ( -0,106)
  0,582 0,144 0,004 - 0,418 0,116 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 6/3 +0,178 ( -0,157)
  0,568 0,130 0,003 - 0,432 0,105 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Sometimes exchanging the bar pt for the 5pt is good -- here slotting is better, gnubg says.

Move number 5: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' ' ' '2X4X|   |2O4X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       2 6       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' '2O4O|   |1O3O ' ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 153, juggler 140
Position ID: sNfBwQCw58EBMA Match ID: MAH5ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/18*/16

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,220(Money: -0,234)
 0,412 0,100 0,002 - 0,588 0,156 0,005
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,275 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,275
3.Double, take -0,724 -0,449
Proper cube action:No double, take (26,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/22 24/18* +0,114
  0,517 0,125 0,004 - 0,483 0,123 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/18* 8/6 +0,099 ( -0,015)
  0,510 0,131 0,004 - 0,490 0,125 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
3 2 24/18*/16 +0,095 ( -0,019)
  0,511 0,125 0,003 - 0,489 0,123 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/18* 13/11 +0,029 ( -0,084)
  0,491 0,140 0,005 - 0,509 0,145 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/18* 6/4 -0,082 ( -0,195)
  0,469 0,125 0,004 - 0,531 0,161 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 6: juggler to play 56

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' ' ' '2X4X|   |2O4X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 6       |
|1X ' ' '2O4O|   | '3O1X ' '3X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 145, juggler 158
Position ID: sOfBESCw5+BgQA Match ID: cIn6ABAAEAAA

• juggler cannot move

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,038(Money: -0,024)
 0,489 0,123 0,004 - 0,511 0,125 0,003
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,095 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,095
3.Double, take -0,563 -0,469
Proper cube action:No double, take (30,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 7: kitwoolsey to play 24

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' ' ' '2X4X|   |2O4X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       2 4       | 1 |                 |
|1X ' ' '2O4O|   | '3O1X ' '3X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 145, juggler 158
Position ID: sOfgYECw58ERIA Match ID: MAHxABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 8/4 6/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,171(Money: +0,157)
 0,554 0,144 0,003 - 0,446 0,096 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,285 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,715
3.Double, take +0,135 -0,150
Proper cube action:No double, take (17,4%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/4 6/4 +0,425
  0,581 0,175 0,004 - 0,419 0,091 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 16/10 +0,211 ( -0,214)
  0,536 0,144 0,004 - 0,464 0,110 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/18 +0,168 ( -0,257)
  0,539 0,114 0,003 - 0,461 0,121 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 0 24/22 13/9 +0,089 ( -0,336)
  0,508 0,137 0,004 - 0,492 0,137 0,005  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 16/14 13/9 +0,086 ( -0,339)
  0,503 0,141 0,003 - 0,497 0,129 0,005  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 8: juggler to play 63

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' ' '2X2X3X|   |2O3X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 3       |
|1X ' ' '2O4O|   | '3O1X ' '3X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 139, juggler 158
Position ID: 2M7BESCw5+BgQA Match ID: cAnvABAAEAAA

• juggler moves bar/16

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,263(Money: -0,247)
 0,419 0,091 0,003 - 0,581 0,175 0,004
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,425 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,425
3.Double, take -1,117 -0,692
Proper cube action:No double, take (32,7%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/16 -0,302
  0,446 0,078 0,002 - 0,554 0,135 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/22 13/7 -0,581 ( -0,279)
  0,397 0,106 0,004 - 0,603 0,240 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 0 bar/22 8/2 -0,676 ( -0,373)
  0,374 0,089 0,002 - 0,626 0,224 0,009  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 9: kitwoolsey to play 16

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' ' '2X2X3X|   |2O3X1O ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 6       | 1 |                 |
|1X ' ' '2O4O|   | '3O1X ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 139, juggler 149
Position ID: sOfgyADYzsERIA Match ID: MIH4ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 16/9*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,179(Money: +0,167)
 0,554 0,135 0,004 - 0,446 0,078 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,302 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,698
3.Double, take +0,141 -0,161
Proper cube action:No double, take (18,7%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 16/9* +0,561
  0,613 0,211 0,004 - 0,387 0,077 0,003  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  2 0 16/10 6/5 +0,006 ( -0,555)
  0,478 0,112 0,001 - 0,522 0,097 0,003  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  3 0 24/23 16/10 +0,005 ( -0,556)
  0,480 0,110 0,001 - 0,520 0,099 0,003  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 24/18 6/5 -0,018 ( -0,579)
  0,487 0,087 0,001 - 0,513 0,113 0,004  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 24/18 16/15 -0,042 ( -0,603)
  0,479 0,087 0,001 - 0,521 0,114 0,004  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 10: juggler to play 43

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' ' '2X2X3X|   |2O3X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 3       |
|1X ' ' '2O4O|   | '3O ' ' '3X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 132, juggler 158
Position ID: 2M6FAyCw5+BgQA Match ID: cAnuABAAEAAA

• juggler moves bar/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,386(Money: -0,370)
 0,379 0,074 0,002 - 0,621 0,200 0,004
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,643 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,643
3.Double, take -1,477 -0,834
Proper cube action:No double, take (33,7%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 bar/18 -0,255
  0,444 0,058 0,001 - 0,556 0,094 0,001  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  2 0 bar/22 13/9 -0,643 ( -0,388)
  0,385 0,083 0,002 - 0,615 0,230 0,009  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  3 0 bar/22 8/4 -0,878 ( -0,623)
  0,360 0,080 0,002 - 0,640 0,277 0,012  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 bar/22 6/2 -0,996 ( -0,741)
  0,340 0,074 0,002 - 0,660 0,285 0,011  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 bar/22 5/1* -1,015 ( -0,760)
  0,273 0,052 0,001 - 0,727 0,365 0,017  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 11: kitwoolsey to play 34

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' ' '2X2X3X|   |3O3X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 4       | 1 |                 |
|1X ' ' '2O4O|   | '3O ' ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 132, juggler 151
Position ID: sOfg4ADYzoUDIA Match ID: MIHxABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/21 13/9

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,167(Money: +0,157)
 0,566 0,092 0,002 - 0,434 0,067 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,281 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,719
3.Double, take +0,122 -0,159
Proper cube action:No double, take (18,1%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/21 13/9 +0,450
  0,618 0,097 0,001 - 0,382 0,062 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/21 9/5 +0,406 ( -0,044)
  0,603 0,108 0,001 - 0,397 0,067 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/9 8/5 +0,323 ( -0,127)
  0,578 0,107 0,001 - 0,422 0,070 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/9 6/3 +0,306 ( -0,144)
  0,573 0,108 0,001 - 0,427 0,074 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 9/5 8/5 +0,290 ( -0,160)
  0,566 0,114 0,001 - 0,434 0,074 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 12: juggler to play 26

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' ' '2X2X3X|   |3O3X2X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 6       |
| ' ' '1X2O4O|   | '3O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 125, juggler 151
Position ID: 2M4NAwSw5+DgAA Match ID: cAn5ABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 13/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,279(Money: -0,270)
 0,382 0,062 0,001 - 0,618 0,097 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,450 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,450
3.Double, take -1,174 -0,724
Proper cube action:No double, take (33,3%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/5 -0,417
  0,387 0,052 0,001 - 0,613 0,059 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/7 6/4* -0,494 ( -0,076)
  0,408 0,077 0,001 - 0,592 0,197 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/11 8/2 -0,587 ( -0,170)
  0,348 0,051 0,001 - 0,652 0,105 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7 8/6 -0,641 ( -0,223)
  0,346 0,052 0,001 - 0,654 0,126 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 8/2 6/4* -0,893 ( -0,476)
  0,343 0,070 0,001 - 0,657 0,244 0,008  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 13: kitwoolsey to play 42

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' ' '2X2X3X|   |3O3X2X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       4 2       | 1 |                 |
| ' ' '1X3O4O|   | '3O ' ' '2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 125, juggler 143
Position ID: cM/B4ADYzg0DBA Match ID: MAHqABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 8/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,241(Money: +0,235)
 0,613 0,059 0,001 - 0,387 0,052 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,417 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,583
3.Double, take +0,299 -0,119
Proper cube action:No double, take (16,9%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/2 +0,304
  0,582 0,086 0,001 - 0,418 0,078 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 8/4 6/4 +0,237 ( -0,067)
  0,563 0,090 0,001 - 0,437 0,086 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/2 4/2 +0,230 ( -0,074)
  0,548 0,130 0,002 - 0,452 0,101 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 9/5 8/6 +0,136 ( -0,168)
  0,529 0,100 0,001 - 0,471 0,097 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/4 5/3 +0,130 ( -0,174)
  0,519 0,136 0,003 - 0,481 0,121 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 14: juggler to play 51

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '1X '2X2X3X|   |3O2X2X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 1       |
| ' ' '1X3O4O|   | '3O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 119, juggler 143
Position ID: sp0NAwRwz8HgAA Match ID: cInmABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 18/13 5/4*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,181(Money: -0,172)
 0,418 0,078 0,002 - 0,582 0,086 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,304 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,304
3.Double, take -0,927 -0,623
Proper cube action:No double, take (32,3%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 18/13 5/4* -0,277
  0,452 0,101 0,002 - 0,548 0,165 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 18/13 6/5 -0,388 ( -0,111)
  0,397 0,055 0,001 - 0,603 0,065 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 5/4* -0,447 ( -0,170)
  0,414 0,097 0,002 - 0,586 0,210 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/3 6/5 -0,453 ( -0,176)
  0,382 0,064 0,001 - 0,618 0,085 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/2 -0,463 ( -0,186)
  0,376 0,060 0,001 - 0,624 0,081 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 15: kitwoolsey to play 44

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| '1X '2X2X3X|   |2O2X2X ' '3O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       4 4       | 1 |                 |
| ' ' '1O2O4O|   | '3O ' ' '2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 123, juggler 137
Position ID: aM/BwQCynQ0DQA Match ID: MAHyABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves bar/21* 13/9(2) 6/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,178(Money: +0,162)
 0,548 0,165 0,005 - 0,452 0,101 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,277 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,723
3.Double, take +0,151 -0,126
Proper cube action:No double, take (14,8%)

 

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0,643)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/21* 13/9(2) 6/2 +1,112
  0,761 0,381 0,004 - 0,239 0,025 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/21* 13/5 6/2 +1,082 ( -0,030)
  0,728 0,415 0,007 - 0,272 0,040 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/21* 9/5(2) 6/2 +1,053 ( -0,059)
  0,727 0,374 0,006 - 0,273 0,038 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/21* 8/4(2) 6/2 +1,021 ( -0,091)
  0,709 0,360 0,007 - 0,291 0,042 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 bar/21* 6/2 5/1(2) +0,996 ( -0,116)
  0,704 0,339 0,003 - 0,296 0,049 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 16: juggler to play 36

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X '2X2X2X|   |2O2X4X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 6       |
| ' ' '1X2O4O|   | '3O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 107, juggler 158
Position ID: Zps9AASw5+BgQA Match ID: cIn5ABAAEAAA

• juggler moves bar/22 8/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,907(Money: -0,881)
 0,239 0,025 0,001 - 0,761 0,381 0,004
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,112 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,112
3.Double, take -2,325 -1,213
Proper cube action:No double, take (36,5%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 bar/22 13/7 -1,080
  0,273 0,053 0,001 - 0,727 0,483 0,017  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 bar/22 8/2 -1,114 ( -0,033)
  0,251 0,050 0,001 - 0,749 0,440 0,012  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/22 18/12 -1,307 ( -0,227)
  0,206 0,037 0,001 - 0,794 0,575 0,019  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 17: kitwoolsey to play 36

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| '2X1O2X2X2X|   |2O2X4X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 6       | 1 |                 |
| '1O '1X2O4O|   | '2O ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 107, juggler 149
Position ID: Ys/gYAhmmz0ABA Match ID: MIH5ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/6 9/3*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,930(Money: +0,899)
 0,749 0,440 0,012 - 0,251 0,050 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +1,114 
2.Double, take +1,812 +0,699
3.Double, pass +1,000 -0,114
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (14,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 9/6 9/3* +1,222
  0,770 0,507 0,008 - 0,230 0,043 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 21/18 9/3* +1,136 ( -0,086)
  0,765 0,455 0,009 - 0,235 0,046 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 21/15 9/6 +1,088 ( -0,134)
  0,801 0,325 0,007 - 0,199 0,027 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 9/3* 8/5 +1,067 ( -0,155)
  0,734 0,470 0,009 - 0,266 0,057 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 9/3* 6/3 +1,049 ( -0,173)
  0,742 0,423 0,007 - 0,258 0,045 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 18: juggler to play 24

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X1X2X2X3X|   |2O2X2X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 4       |
| '1O '1X2O4O|   | '2O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 98, juggler 152
Position ID: 1nY2AARiz+BgQA Match ID: cAnxABAAEAAA

• juggler cannot move

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -1,044(Money: -1,010)
 0,230 0,043 0,002 - 0,770 0,507 0,008
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,222 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,222
3.Double, take -2,572 -1,350
Proper cube action:No double, take (37,8%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 19: kitwoolsey to play 13

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| '2X1X2X2X3X|   |2O2X2X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 3       | 1 |                 |
| '1O '1X2O4O|   | '2O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 98, juggler 152
Position ID: Ys/gYEDWdjYABA Match ID: MIHsABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/8 6/3

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +1,379(Money: +1,337)
 0,857 0,628 0,014 - 0,143 0,019 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +1,469 
2.Double, take +2,819 +1,351
3.Double, pass +1,000 -0,469
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (25,8%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 9/8 6/3 +1,470
  0,863 0,626 0,008 - 0,137 0,014 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 21/18 3/2 +1,256 ( -0,213)
  0,819 0,478 0,006 - 0,181 0,023 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/5 3/2 +1,230 ( -0,239)
  0,771 0,512 0,011 - 0,229 0,035 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 21/18 6/5 +1,220 ( -0,250)
  0,780 0,513 0,010 - 0,220 0,045 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 9/5 +1,190 ( -0,279)
  0,765 0,535 0,007 - 0,235 0,047 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 20: juggler to play 24

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X2X2X2X2X|   |2O3X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 4       |
| '1O '1X2O4O|   | '2O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 94, juggler 152
Position ID: tm0uAARiz+BgQA Match ID: cAnxABAAEAAA

• juggler cannot move

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -1,386(Money: -1,345)
 0,137 0,014 0,001 - 0,863 0,626 0,008
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,470 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,470
3.Double, take -3,104 -1,634
Proper cube action:No double, take (39,8%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 21: kitwoolsey to play 15

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| '2X2X2X2X2X|   |2O3X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 5       | 1 |                 |
| '1O '1X2O4O|   | '2O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 94, juggler 152
Position ID: Ys/gYEC2bS4ABA Match ID: MIH0ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 21/15

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +1,454(Money: +1,411)
 0,881 0,649 0,014 - 0,119 0,013 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +1,525 
2.Double, take +2,993 +1,467
3.Double, pass +1,000 -0,525
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (26,4%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 21/15 +1,568
  0,899 0,668 0,010 - 0,101 0,009 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 21/16 9/8 +1,556 ( -0,012)
  0,907 0,646 0,006 - 0,093 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 9/3 +1,517 ( -0,051)
  0,875 0,656 0,006 - 0,125 0,010 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/2 +1,492 ( -0,075)
  0,860 0,653 0,008 - 0,140 0,014 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 9/4 2/1 +1,162 ( -0,406)
  0,744 0,519 0,010 - 0,256 0,046 0,002  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 22: juggler to play 14

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X2X2X2X2X|   |2O3X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 4       |
| '1O ' '2O4O|   | '2O '1X ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 88, juggler 152
Position ID: tm0uEABiz+BgQA Match ID: cInwABAAEAAA

• juggler moves bar/24 6/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -1,510(Money: -1,466)
 0,101 0,009 0,000 - 0,899 0,668 0,010
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,568 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,568
3.Double, take -3,316 -1,748
Proper cube action:No double, take (40,5%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/24 6/2 -1,245
  0,166 0,023 0,000 - 0,834 0,462 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/24 13/9 -1,348 ( -0,103)
  0,133 0,017 0,000 - 0,867 0,494 0,014  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/24 8/4 -1,359 ( -0,114)
  0,151 0,030 0,001 - 0,849 0,538 0,017  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/24 5/1 -1,490 ( -0,245)
  0,117 0,022 0,000 - 0,883 0,618 0,016  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 bar/24 18/14 -1,598 ( -0,353)
  0,108 0,015 0,000 - 0,892 0,691 0,034  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 23: kitwoolsey to play 33

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O2X2X2X2X2X|   |2O3X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 3       | 1 |                 |
| '2O ' '2O3O|   | '2O '1X ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 88, juggler 147
Position ID: xs7gYCC2bS4QAA Match ID: MIHtABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/6 8/5 4/1*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +1,146(Money: +1,115)
 0,834 0,462 0,009 - 0,166 0,023 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +1,245 
2.Double, take +2,310 +1,065
3.Double, pass +1,000 -0,245
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (18,7%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 9/6 8/5 4/1*(2) +1,595
  0,901 0,696 0,004 - 0,099 0,007 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 9/3 4/1*(2) +1,474 ( -0,120)
  0,865 0,618 0,003 - 0,135 0,010 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/2 4/1*(2) +1,383 ( -0,211)
  0,829 0,607 0,004 - 0,171 0,026 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/5(2) 4/1*(2) +1,348 ( -0,247)
  0,817 0,621 0,005 - 0,183 0,039 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 9/6 8/5(3) +1,128 ( -0,467)
  0,770 0,415 0,009 - 0,230 0,015 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 24: juggler to play 42

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X2X2X '3X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 2       |
| '2O ' '2O3O|   | '2O '1X ' '|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 76, juggler 148
Position ID: 29wZEADGzuBgQA Match ID: cAnqABAAEAAA

• juggler moves bar/21 6/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -1,541(Money: -1,496)
 0,099 0,007 0,000 - 0,901 0,696 0,004
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,595 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,595
3.Double, take -3,374 -1,779
Proper cube action:No double, take (40,7%)

 

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,052)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 bar/21 13/11 -1,418
  0,143 0,017 0,000 - 0,857 0,620 0,014  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/21 8/6 -1,431 ( -0,013)
  0,132 0,018 0,000 - 0,868 0,603 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
3 2 bar/21 6/4 -1,470 ( -0,052)
  0,135 0,018 0,000 - 0,865 0,639 0,011  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/21 5/3 -1,608 ( -0,190)
  0,101 0,015 0,000 - 0,899 0,704 0,015  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 bar/21 18/16 -1,638 ( -0,220)
  0,100 0,013 0,000 - 0,900 0,748 0,018  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Gnubg's choice looked too risky to me but actually loses *fewer* gammons (additionally to losing fewer games overall) . Sure the 1 is duplicated, and being hit now is gammonish even with a single checker on the bar, so the aggressive 13/11 comes at little cost.

Move number 25: kitwoolsey to play 36

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X2X2X1O3X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 6       | 1 |                 |
| '2O '1O2O2O|   | '2O '1X ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 76, juggler 142
Position ID: ps3gYATb3BkQAA Match ID: MIH5ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 15/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +1,403(Money: +1,361)
 0,865 0,639 0,011 - 0,135 0,018 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +1,470 
2.Double, take +2,876 +1,406
3.Double, pass +1,000 -0,470
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (25,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 15/6 +1,443
  0,947 0,483 0,001 - 0,053 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  2 0 15/9 6/3 +1,110 ( -0,333)
  0,767 0,405 0,004 - 0,233 0,020 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  3 0 15/9 5/2 +1,075 ( -0,368)
  0,753 0,390 0,004 - 0,247 0,022 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 8/5 8/2 +0,985 ( -0,458)
  0,703 0,370 0,004 - 0,297 0,018 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 15/9 8/5 +0,828 ( -0,615)
  0,636 0,373 0,005 - 0,364 0,083 0,008  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 26: juggler to play 35

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X2X2X1O3X4X|   |2O2X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 5       |
| '2O '1O2O2O|   | '2O ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 67, juggler 142
Position ID: 29wzAACmzeBgBA Match ID: cIn1ABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 21/18 13/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -1,293(Money: -1,271)
 0,036 0,002 0,000 - 0,964 0,344 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,319 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,319
3.Double, take -2,763 -1,443
Proper cube action:No double, take (38,4%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 21/16 13/10 -1,234
  0,031 0,002 0,000 - 0,969 0,265 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 21/18 13/8 -1,271 ( -0,037)
  0,022 0,003 0,000 - 0,978 0,284 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 21/13 -1,276 ( -0,041)
  0,027 0,002 0,000 - 0,973 0,293 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 21/16 8/5 -1,291 ( -0,057)
  0,013 0,001 0,000 - 0,987 0,290 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 21/18 8/3 -1,333 ( -0,099)
  0,014 0,002 0,000 - 0,986 0,332 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 27: kitwoolsey to play 16

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X2X2X '3X4X|   |3O2X ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 6       | 1 |                 |
| '2O '1O2O2O|   | '3O ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 67, juggler 134
Position ID: ps3B4ADb3DMAAA Match ID: MIH4ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 8/2 5/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +1,255(Money: +1,236)
 0,978 0,284 0,000 - 0,022 0,003 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +1,271 
2.Double, take +2,607 +1,336
3.Double, pass +1,000 -0,271
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (16,9%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 8/2 6/5 +1,083
  0,877 0,236 0,001 - 0,123 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 8/2 5/4 +1,076 ( -0,007)
  0,872 0,231 0,002 - 0,128 0,007 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/1 +1,064 ( -0,019)
  0,874 0,220 0,001 - 0,126 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/2 3/2 +0,917 ( -0,166)
  0,843 0,214 0,002 - 0,157 0,012 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 28: juggler to play 11

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |3O1X ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 1       |
| '2O '1O2O2O|   | '3O ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 60, juggler 134
Position ID: u7UnAACmzcHgAA Match ID: cInkABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 18/17* 13/12 4/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,985(Money: -0,970)
 0,128 0,007 0,000 - 0,872 0,231 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -1,076 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +2,076
3.Double, take -2,249 -1,174
Proper cube action:No double, take (36,1%)

 

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,537)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 18/17*(2) 4/2 -0,464
  0,409 0,018 0,000 - 0,591 0,144 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 18/17* 13/12 4/2 -0,474 ( -0,010)
  0,415 0,019 0,000 - 0,585 0,157 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 18/17*(2) 5/4(2) -0,479 ( -0,015)
  0,409 0,020 0,000 - 0,591 0,161 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 18/17* 13/12 5/4(2) -0,488 ( -0,024)
  0,412 0,020 0,000 - 0,588 0,170 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 18/17*/16 4/2 -0,488 ( -0,024)
  0,406 0,017 0,000 - 0,594 0,148 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
I thought it was a good cube. My lost checker on the 2... but Kit has a long way home, and there are no escaping or hitting doubles from the bar in the subsequent scenarios.

Move number 29: kitwoolsey doubles to 2

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |2O1O ' ' '1O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       [2]       |   |                 |
| '3O ' '2O2O|   | '3O ' ' '1O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 130
Position ID: js2h0AC7tQcAQA Match ID: MBngABAAEAAA

• juggler accepts

Alert: wrong double ( -0,065)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,322(Money: +0,311)
 0,585 0,157 0,003 - 0,415 0,019 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,474 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,526
3.Double, take +0,409 -0,065
Proper cube action:No double, take (11,1%)

 


Move number 30: kitwoolsey to play 61

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |2O1O ' ' '1O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       6 1       |   |                 |
| '3O ' '2O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '1O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 130
Position ID: js2h0AC7tQcAQA Match ID: EQHnABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves bar/18

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 bar/18 +0,282
  0,614 0,197 0,001 - 0,386 0,021 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 31: juggler to play 22

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |2O1O ' ' '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 |   |       2 2       |
| '3O ' '2O2O| 2 |1X3O ' ' '1O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 70, juggler 130
Position ID: u7UHgACOzaHQAA Match ID: UQnpABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 13/7*/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,433(Money: -0,401)
 0,392 0,021 0,000 - 0,608 0,198 0,009
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,284 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,284
3.Double, take -1,203 -0,919
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (41,7%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/7*/5 -0,120
  0,421 0,017 0,000 - 0,579 0,119 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 18/16 13/7* -0,125 ( -0,005)
  0,450 0,022 0,000 - 0,550 0,175 0,012  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 17/15 13/7* -0,155 ( -0,035)
  0,435 0,023 0,000 - 0,565 0,179 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7* 8/6 -0,196 ( -0,076)
  0,422 0,024 0,000 - 0,578 0,188 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/7* 12/10 -0,220 ( -0,101)
  0,424 0,024 0,000 - 0,576 0,215 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 32: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |2O1O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 6       |   |                 |
| '3O ' '3O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '1O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 122
Position ID: jptD0AC7tQcAQA Match ID: EQH5ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey cannot move

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 33: juggler to play 46

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |2O1O ' ' ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       4 6       |
| '3O ' '3O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '1O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 122
Position ID: u7UHAECOm0PQAA Match ID: UQn6ABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 18/12 17/13

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,201(Money: -0,188)
 0,450 0,022 0,000 - 0,550 0,109 0,001
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,037 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,037
3.Double, take -0,834 -0,798
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (43,5%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 18/14 17/11 +0,050
  0,475 0,018 0,000 - 0,525 0,079 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 18/14 12/6 +0,049 ( -0,001)
  0,472 0,017 0,000 - 0,528 0,074 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 18/14 18/12 +0,015 ( -0,035)
  0,459 0,017 0,000 - 0,541 0,076 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
4 2 18/12 17/13 +0,013 ( -0,037)
  0,462 0,017 0,000 - 0,538 0,084 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 17/13 12/6 +0,000 ( -0,050)
  0,453 0,016 0,000 - 0,547 0,077 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 34: kitwoolsey to play 45

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X3X2X1X2X4X|   |1O ' ' ' '1O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       4 5       |   |                 |
| '3O ' '3O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '2O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 112
Position ID: jpvDggC7tQcAQA Match ID: EQH2ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves bar/21 6/1

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,068)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 bar/16 +0,258
  0,644 0,101 0,001 - 0,356 0,016 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
?? 2 bar/21 6/1 +0,190 ( -0,068)
  0,594 0,155 0,002 - 0,406 0,028 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 35: juggler to play 33

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|3X3X2X1X2X3X|   |1O ' ' ' '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 |   |       3 3       |
| '3O '1X3O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '2O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 68, juggler 112
Position ID: d2sHAASOm8OCAA Match ID: UYntABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 18/15 13/4*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,335(Money: -0,316)
 0,406 0,028 0,000 - 0,594 0,155 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,190 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,190
3.Double, take -1,137 -0,947
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (44,3%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 18/15 12/9(2) 8/5 -0,089
  0,421 0,024 0,000 - 0,579 0,091 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 18/15 13/4* -0,106 ( -0,017)
  0,456 0,032 0,000 - 0,544 0,184 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 18/9 12/9 -0,144 ( -0,055)
  0,400 0,026 0,000 - 0,600 0,097 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 12/9(2) 8/2 -0,173 ( -0,083)
  0,387 0,014 0,000 - 0,613 0,089 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/4* 8/5 -0,174 ( -0,085)
  0,428 0,028 0,000 - 0,572 0,184 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
My choice wins more games but loses too many times gammon.

Move number 36: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|3X3X2X1X2X3X|   | ' ' '1O ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 6       |   |                 |
| '3O '1O3O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '2O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 72, juggler 100
Position ID: TjeHEQB3awcAQA Match ID: EQH5ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey cannot move

Alert: very unlucky roll! ( -0,630)

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 37: juggler to play 13

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|3X3X2X1X2X3X|   | ' ' '1O ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       1 3       |
| '3O '1O3O2O| 2 | '3O ' ' '2O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 72, juggler 100
Position ID: d2sHAEBON4cRAA Match ID: UYnsABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 8/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,237(Money: +0,239)
 0,630 0,028 0,001 - 0,370 0,050 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,486 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,514
3.Double, take +0,206 -0,279
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (35,2%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/4 +0,595
  0,669 0,029 0,000 - 0,331 0,039 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 12/9 5/4 +0,574 ( -0,021)
  0,667 0,032 0,000 - 0,333 0,054 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 15/12 5/4 +0,450 ( -0,145)
  0,622 0,025 0,000 - 0,378 0,031 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 4/1 2/1 +0,355 ( -0,240)
  0,587 0,023 0,000 - 0,413 0,045 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 15/11 -0,058 ( -0,652)
  0,465 0,030 0,000 - 0,535 0,171 0,003  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 38: kitwoolsey to play 32

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|3X3X2X1X2X3X|   | ' ' '1O ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       3 2       |   |                 |
| '3O '2O3O2O| 2 | '2O ' ' '2O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 72, juggler 96
Position ID: zm6GEQB3awcAQA Match ID: EYHpABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey moves bar/22 6/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/22 6/4 -0,173
  0,485 0,057 0,000 - 0,515 0,022 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/22 4/2 -0,386 ( -0,213)
  0,402 0,062 0,000 - 0,598 0,032 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/22 5/3 -0,533 ( -0,360)
  0,342 0,069 0,001 - 0,658 0,065 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/22 3/1 -0,598 ( -0,426)
  0,315 0,069 0,002 - 0,685 0,081 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 39: juggler to play 54

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|3X3X2X2X2X2X|   | ' ' '1O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 |   |       5 4       |
| '3O1X2O3O2O| 2 | '2O ' ' '2O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 67, juggler 96
Position ID: d9sGAAjOboYRAA Match ID: UYnyABAAEAAA

• juggler moves 8/4 8/3*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,009(Money: -0,005)
 0,515 0,022 0,000 - 0,485 0,057 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,173 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,827
3.Double, take -0,447 -0,620
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (42,8%)

 

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,062)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 12/3* +0,206
  0,571 0,035 0,000 - 0,429 0,185 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 8/4 8/3* +0,144 ( -0,062)
  0,526 0,030 0,000 - 0,474 0,177 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 15/11 8/3* +0,068 ( -0,138)
  0,535 0,029 0,000 - 0,465 0,234 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 15/6 +0,040 ( -0,165)
  0,451 0,014 0,000 - 0,549 0,021 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 15/10 5/1 -0,178 ( -0,383)
  0,372 0,013 0,000 - 0,628 0,057 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
I was of course afraid to leave more blots but keeping the 8pt looks so much better in retrospect.

Move number 40: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|3X3X2X2X2X2X|   | ' ' '1O ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 6       |   |                 |
| '3O1O3O3O2O| 2 | ' ' ' ' '2O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 70, juggler 87
Position ID: rruBEQB32wYAQA Match ID: EQH5ABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey cannot move

Alert: very unlucky roll! ( -0,709)

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 41: juggler doubles to 4

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|3X3X2X2X2X2X|   | ' ' '1O ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       [4]       |
| '3O1O3O3O2O| 2 | ' ' ' ' '2O|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 70, juggler 87
Position ID: d9sGAECuu4ERAA Match ID: URHgABAAEAAA

• kitwoolsey rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0,008)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,538(Money: +0,538)
 0,771 0,028 0,001 - 0,229 0,032 0,000
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.Double, take +0,992 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,008
3.No double +0,787 -0,205
Proper cube action:Redouble, take

 

juggler wins 2 points

Game statistics for game 4
Playerkitwoolseyjuggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves 20 19
Unforced moves 16 16
Unmarked moves 0 0
Moves marked good 19 16
Moves marked doubtful 1 3
Moves marked bad 0 0
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error rate (total) -0,115 ( -1,331%) -0,307 ( -3,078%)
Error rate (per move) -7,2 ( -0,083%) -19,2 ( -0,192%)
Chequerplay rating Expert Casual player
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 1 0
Rolls marked lucky 0 2
Rolls unmarked 17 17
Rolls marked unlucky 0 0
Rolls marked very unlucky 2 0
Luck rate (total) -0,328 (-11,354%) +0,540 ( +3,169%)
Luck rate (per move) -16,4 ( -0,568%) +28,4 ( +0,167%)
Luck rating None Good dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 15 21
Close or actual cube decisions 7 2
Doubles 1 1
Takes 0 1
Passes 1 0
Missed doubles (below CP) 0 0
Missed doubles (above CP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (below DP) 1 (-0,065 ( -0,477%)) 0
Wrong doubles (above TG) 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 1 (-0,008 ( -0,110%)) 0
Error rate (total) -0,073 ( -0,586%) +0,000
Error rate (per cube decision) -10,4 ( -0,084%) +0,0
Cube decision rating Advanced Supernatural
Overall statistics
Error rate (total) -0,188 ( -1,917%) -0,307 ( -3,078%)
Error rate (per decision) -8,2 ( -0,083%) -17,1 ( -0,171%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate -4,8 -7,9
Overall rating Advanced Intermediate
Actual result -14,60% +14,60%
Luck adjusted result -0,07% +0,07%

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