Game number 7

The score (after 6 games) is: kitwoolsey 5, juggler 6 (match to 7 points, Crawford game)

[First Game] [Previous Game] [Last Game]

Match Information

Date	Juni 27, 2008
Event	Davide's Spring Tournament 2008
Round	Consolation 3
Place	FIBS
Annotator	juggler
Comment	I was to play Kit Woolsey in round 3 of the consolation of Davide's Spring Tournament 2008. While I was looking forward to playing Kit I was also swearing under my breath why it had to be before the final ;-). Turned out that my dice outperformed his play.

Move number 1: kitwoolsey to play 56

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 167, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: sID6AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/13	+0,314
			0,531 0,126 0,004 - 0,469 0,120 0,003
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	24/18 13/8	+0,307 ( -0,006)
			0,521 0,132 0,006 - 0,479 0,128 0,004
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/8 13/7	+0,269 ( -0,045)
			0,489 0,145 0,007 - 0,511 0,138 0,006
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/2	+0,231 ( -0,083)
			0,476 0,140 0,006 - 0,524 0,148 0,007
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	24/18 8/3	+0,173 ( -0,141)
			0,467 0,120 0,005 - 0,533 0,164 0,007
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 2: juggler to play 63

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 156, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwAyDgc/ABMA Match ID: 8AnvAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 24/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/18 13/10	-0,354
			0,459 0,105 0,003 - 0,541 0,136 0,004
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	2	24/15	-0,366 ( -0,011)
			0,451 0,094 0,002 - 0,549 0,134 0,003
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	24/21 13/7	-0,372 ( -0,017)
			0,448 0,111 0,003 - 0,552 0,134 0,004
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/4	-0,396 ( -0,042)
			0,442 0,118 0,003 - 0,558 0,140 0,006
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/10 13/7	-0,401 ( -0,047)
			0,443 0,122 0,003 - 0,557 0,144 0,007
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 3: kitwoolsey to play 55

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 156, juggler 158
Position ID: 4HPwCSDgc/ADIA Match ID: sIH2AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 8/3(2) 6/1*(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,337)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3(2) 6/1*(2)	+0,759
			0,625 0,255 0,004 - 0,375 0,072 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/8(2) 6/1*(2)	+0,641 ( -0,118)
			0,623 0,198 0,002 - 0,377 0,070 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/3(2)	+0,572 ( -0,187)
			0,610 0,176 0,003 - 0,390 0,075 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/3 8/3 6/1*	+0,542 ( -0,217)
			0,578 0,193 0,004 - 0,422 0,089 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/3 6/1*(2)	+0,496 ( -0,263)
			0,562 0,186 0,003 - 0,438 0,090 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 4: juggler to play 46

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 136, juggler 159
Position ID: M07wAyDgc/AJQA Match ID: 8An6AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves bar/15

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,395)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/15	-0,329
			0,453 0,058 0,001 - 0,547 0,117 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	bar/21 15/9	-0,636 ( -0,307)
			0,410 0,084 0,003 - 0,590 0,229 0,004
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	0	bar/21 13/7	-0,882 ( -0,553)
			0,362 0,079 0,002 - 0,638 0,302 0,010
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	4	0	bar/21 8/2	-1,016 ( -0,687)
			0,328 0,070 0,002 - 0,672 0,336 0,010
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Move number 5: kitwoolsey to play 35

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 136, juggler 149
Position ID: 4HPwGQAzTvADIA Match ID: sIH1AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/21 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/5	+0,379
			0,559 0,131 0,001 - 0,441 0,063 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	2	24/21 13/8	+0,375 ( -0,004)
			0,594 0,094 0,000 - 0,406 0,052 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/8 6/3	+0,317 ( -0,062)
			0,550 0,108 0,000 - 0,450 0,067 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	24/21 8/3	+0,261 ( -0,118)
			0,540 0,090 0,000 - 0,460 0,074 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	24/16	+0,257 ( -0,122)
			0,570 0,059 0,000 - 0,430 0,054 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 6: juggler to play 41

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 128, juggler 149
Position ID: M87gAwTgc/AZAA Match ID: 8AnmAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8	-0,373
			0,379 0,043 0,001 - 0,621 0,066 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	8/3	-0,459 ( -0,086)
			0,355 0,042 0,001 - 0,645 0,085 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/1	-0,474 ( -0,100)
			0,360 0,046 0,001 - 0,640 0,097 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	6/5 6/2	-0,627 ( -0,253)
			0,337 0,046 0,001 - 0,663 0,151 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/4*/3	-0,630 ( -0,257)
			0,378 0,058 0,001 - 0,622 0,193 0,003
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 7: kitwoolsey to play 43

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 128, juggler 144
Position ID: 4PPgGQAzzuADBA Match ID: sAHuAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/9 8/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/9 8/5	+0,419
			0,610 0,100 0,000 - 0,390 0,045 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/6	+0,403 ( -0,016)
			0,607 0,094 0,000 - 0,393 0,050 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	8/5 8/4	+0,380 ( -0,038)
			0,583 0,107 0,001 - 0,417 0,060 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/9 6/3	+0,359 ( -0,060)
			0,591 0,088 0,000 - 0,409 0,054 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/5 6/2	+0,349 ( -0,069)
			0,572 0,103 0,001 - 0,428 0,069 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 8: juggler to play 53

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 121, juggler 144
Position ID: M53CAwTg8+AZAA Match ID: 8InuAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 8/3 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3 6/3	-0,363
			0,393 0,045 0,001 - 0,607 0,075 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/8 6/3	-0,401 ( -0,038)
			0,371 0,038 0,001 - 0,629 0,072 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/3 6/1	-0,482 ( -0,118)
			0,345 0,037 0,001 - 0,655 0,086 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/5	-0,574 ( -0,211)
			0,356 0,046 0,001 - 0,644 0,143 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	15/10 13/10	-0,639 ( -0,275)
			0,367 0,055 0,002 - 0,633 0,186 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 9: kitwoolsey to play 32

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 121, juggler 136
Position ID: jOfgGQAzncIDBA Match ID: sIHpAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/7 8/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/5 6/4	+0,337
			0,565 0,103 0,001 - 0,435 0,059 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/8	+0,330 ( -0,007)
			0,562 0,102 0,001 - 0,438 0,061 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	2	9/7 8/5	+0,329 ( -0,008)
			0,566 0,099 0,001 - 0,434 0,057 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/11 8/5	+0,329 ( -0,008)
			0,563 0,101 0,001 - 0,437 0,059 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	9/4	+0,313 ( -0,023)
			0,538 0,119 0,001 - 0,462 0,079 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 10: juggler to play 52

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 116, juggler 136
Position ID: M7vAAwSM5+AZAA Match ID: 8InqAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/6	-0,336
			0,399 0,043 0,001 - 0,601 0,067 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/8 3/1	-0,391 ( -0,055)
			0,374 0,039 0,001 - 0,626 0,069 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/1 3/1	-0,403 ( -0,067)
			0,382 0,043 0,000 - 0,618 0,084 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/11 13/8	-0,454 ( -0,117)
			0,380 0,045 0,001 - 0,620 0,107 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/1	-0,473 ( -0,137)
			0,368 0,044 0,001 - 0,632 0,105 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Here and in the next move I could hit loose (13/8 6/4), but decided not to because losing gammon here would lose the match. If Kit escapes, be it; I would retain some running chances and could cause some difficulties with my made 15pt.

I was scolded for my cowardice by a much better player, but gnubg vindicates me. Hitting increases the winning chances from 40% to 43%, but also the gammon risk to > 20% (from < 8%) which is too damaging here.

In a money game this would be a hit, but not by a wide margin.

Move number 11: kitwoolsey to play 42

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 116, juggler 129
Position ID: jM/BGQAzu8ADBA Match ID: sAHqAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/9 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/9 6/4	+0,353
			0,575 0,102 0,001 - 0,425 0,051 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/9 7/5	+0,338 ( -0,014)
			0,570 0,099 0,001 - 0,430 0,053 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/7	+0,331 ( -0,022)
			0,569 0,097 0,001 - 0,431 0,053 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/11 13/9	+0,315 ( -0,037)
			0,558 0,100 0,001 - 0,442 0,061 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/11 6/2	+0,304 ( -0,048)
			0,551 0,101 0,001 - 0,449 0,070 0,002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 12: juggler to play 32

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 110, juggler 129
Position ID: s7aEAwSMz8EZAA Match ID: 8InpAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8	-0,370
			0,383 0,034 0,001 - 0,617 0,068 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/1	-0,431 ( -0,062)
			0,361 0,034 0,000 - 0,639 0,077 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	8/3	-0,446 ( -0,077)
			0,364 0,033 0,000 - 0,636 0,087 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/11 6/3	-0,490 ( -0,120)
			0,366 0,044 0,001 - 0,634 0,111 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	6/4* 6/3	-0,636 ( -0,267)
			0,406 0,063 0,002 - 0,594 0,225 0,004
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 13: kitwoolsey to play 26

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 110, juggler 124
Position ID: jM+DGQCztoQDBA Match ID: sAH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 21/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/13	+0,535
			0,758 0,010 0,000 - 0,242 0,002 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/5	+0,410 ( -0,125)
			0,604 0,101 0,001 - 0,396 0,041 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/7 6/4	+0,394 ( -0,142)
			0,599 0,098 0,001 - 0,401 0,042 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/7 4/2	+0,379 ( -0,156)
			0,591 0,098 0,001 - 0,409 0,048 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/7 9/7	+0,373 ( -0,162)
			0,592 0,094 0,001 - 0,408 0,044 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Here it happens: Kit just walks away and there's nothing I can do. Should I have hit? Kit leads the pip count by more than 20.

Move number 14: juggler to play 52

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 102, juggler 124
Position ID: s7aEBwCMz4MZAA Match ID: 8InqAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/11 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/11 13/8	-0,556
			0,230 0,002 0,000 - 0,770 0,008 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	8/3 6/4	-0,562 ( -0,006)
			0,228 0,003 0,000 - 0,772 0,009 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/4 6/1	-0,580 ( -0,024)
			0,221 0,003 0,000 - 0,779 0,011 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	8/6 8/3	-0,582 ( -0,026)
			0,221 0,002 0,000 - 0,779 0,011 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	6/1 3/1	-0,583 ( -0,027)
			0,220 0,003 0,000 - 0,780 0,011 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 15: kitwoolsey to play 62

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 102, juggler 117
Position ID: jM9HGACztoQHAA Match ID: sAHrAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/7 6/4	+0,557
			0,771 0,008 0,000 - 0,229 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	2	13/5	+0,556 ( -0,001)
			0,770 0,008 0,000 - 0,230 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/7 4/2	+0,548 ( -0,009)
			0,767 0,007 0,000 - 0,233 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/7 9/7	+0,544 ( -0,013)
			0,765 0,007 0,000 - 0,235 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/7 5/3	+0,540 ( -0,017)
			0,764 0,006 0,000 - 0,236 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 16: juggler to play 15

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 94, juggler 117
Position ID: s24JBwCMz0cYAA Match ID: 8In0AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 11/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/5	-0,610
			0,201 0,002 0,000 - 0,799 0,006 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	8/3 6/5	-0,614 ( -0,004)
			0,199 0,002 0,000 - 0,801 0,006 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	8/2	-0,618 ( -0,008)
			0,198 0,002 0,000 - 0,802 0,007 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	11/6 8/7	-0,620 ( -0,010)
			0,196 0,002 0,000 - 0,804 0,006 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/7 8/3	-0,623 ( -0,013)
			0,195 0,001 0,000 - 0,805 0,006 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 17: kitwoolsey to play 54

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 94, juggler 111
Position ID: TJ8PGACzbgkHAA Match ID: sIHyAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/4	+0,643
			0,815 0,006 0,000 - 0,185 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/8 6/2	+0,642 ( -0,001)
			0,815 0,006 0,000 - 0,185 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/8 9/5	+0,637 ( -0,006)
			0,812 0,006 0,000 - 0,188 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/9 7/2	+0,633 ( -0,010)
			0,810 0,006 0,000 - 0,190 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/8 7/3	+0,630 ( -0,013)
			0,809 0,006 0,000 - 0,191 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 18: juggler to play 33

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 85, juggler 111
Position ID: s90SBgBMnw8YAA Match ID: 8IntAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 8/5(4)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/2 8/5(2)	-0,555
			0,226 0,002 0,000 - 0,774 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	2	8/5(4)	-0,563 ( -0,008)
			0,222 0,002 0,000 - 0,778 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	8/5(3) 6/3	-0,569 ( -0,014)
			0,219 0,002 0,000 - 0,781 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	8/2 8/5 6/3	-0,576 ( -0,021)
			0,215 0,002 0,000 - 0,785 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/2(2)	-0,586 ( -0,031)
			0,211 0,002 0,000 - 0,789 0,004 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 19: kitwoolsey to play 26

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 85, juggler 99
Position ID: zPcJGACz3RIGAA Match ID: sAH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/3 4/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	9/3 6/4	+0,563
			0,779 0,002 0,000 - 0,221 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	2	9/3 4/2	+0,557 ( -0,006)
			0,776 0,002 0,000 - 0,224 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	9/3 5/3	+0,542 ( -0,020)
			0,769 0,002 0,000 - 0,231 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	9/3 7/5	+0,538 ( -0,024)
			0,766 0,003 0,000 - 0,234 0,002 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	7/1 6/4	+0,531 ( -0,032)
			0,763 0,002 0,000 - 0,237 0,002 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 20: juggler to play 33

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 99
Position ID: 67oFBgDM9wkYAA Match ID: 8IntAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 8/2 6/3 5/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2 6/3 5/2	-0,484
			0,261 0,002 0,000 - 0,739 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/3(2) 5/2(2)	-0,486 ( -0,002)
			0,260 0,001 0,000 - 0,740 0,002 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/3 5/2(3)	-0,488 ( -0,004)
			0,259 0,002 0,000 - 0,741 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	8/2 5/2(2)	-0,494 ( -0,010)
			0,256 0,002 0,000 - 0,744 0,003 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/2 6/3(2)	-0,508 ( -0,024)
			0,250 0,001 0,000 - 0,750 0,004 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 21: kitwoolsey to play 36

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 87
Position ID: dt4DGADrugUGAA Match ID: sIH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 7/1 5/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/1 5/2	+0,448
			0,720 0,004 0,000 - 0,280 0,004 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	7/1 6/3	+0,387 ( -0,062)
			0,690 0,003 0,000 - 0,310 0,010 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	7/1 4/1	+0,355 ( -0,093)
			0,675 0,002 0,000 - 0,325 0,007 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/4	+0,230 ( -0,218)
			0,606 0,009 0,000 - 0,394 0,007 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/7 5/2	+0,175 ( -0,273)
			0,580 0,007 0,000 - 0,420 0,009 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 22: juggler to play 52

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 68, juggler 87
Position ID: t2sDBgB23gMYAA Match ID: 8InqAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/4 6/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	6/1 3/1	-0,445
			0,280 0,004 0,000 - 0,720 0,002 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	2	6/4 6/1	-0,459 ( -0,015)
			0,282 0,006 0,000 - 0,718 0,012 0,001
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/1 5/3	-0,475 ( -0,031)
			0,267 0,003 0,000 - 0,733 0,005 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	15/8	-0,570 ( -0,126)
			0,228 0,015 0,000 - 0,772 0,013 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	15/10 6/4	-0,575 ( -0,131)
			0,236 0,021 0,001 - 0,764 0,023 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 23: kitwoolsey to play 33

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 68, juggler 80
Position ID: 7XoDGAC3awMGAA Match ID: sIHtAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 6/3 5/2(2) 4/1

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,042)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	6/3(2) 5/2(2)	+0,349
			0,672 0,002 0,000 - 0,328 0,011 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/3(2) 5/2 4/1	+0,329 ( -0,020)
			0,663 0,002 0,000 - 0,337 0,008 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	??	2	6/3 5/2(2) 4/1	+0,307 ( -0,042)
			0,651 0,003 0,000 - 0,349 0,009 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

I think gnubg doesn't like the gap from a bear-off perspective. Kit's motive surely was to be able to move 5s without leaving a shot. Kit's move allows him to safely move 51 and 52 while he would use larger rolls to run anyway. Of all 5s only 53 is a problem.

Alas, gnubg would run with 52 anyway a move later! The race is too important.

Move number 24: juggler to play 64

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 56, juggler 80
Position ID: 7z0CBgDtegMYAA Match ID: 8AnzAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 15/11 15/9

Alert: bad move ( -0,128)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	15/9 5/1	-0,273
			0,365 0,008 0,000 - 0,635 0,001 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	15/5	-0,275 ( -0,002)
			0,366 0,030 0,001 - 0,634 0,004 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	15/9 6/2	-0,382 ( -0,109)
			0,324 0,023 0,000 - 0,676 0,015 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	??	2	15/11 15/9	-0,400 ( -0,128)
			0,300 0,000 0,000 - 0,700 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

gnubg wants me to stay with one, which, to be honest, I didn't even consider. I was just so glad that I could race without wasting more pips (after all, that was my advantage in this position). A typical case where an important change in the strategic conditions -- Kit's board had crashed with the 33 -- had not properly registered.

The pip count was of course misleading so I thought I still had considerable chances in the race (gnubg says it's 30% ;-) ).

Move number 25: kitwoolsey to play 26

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 56, juggler 70
Position ID: 7XojAQDvPQIGAA Match ID: sAH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/5	+0,422
			0,711 0,000 0,000 - 0,289 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/7 6/4	+0,415 ( -0,007)
			0,707 0,000 0,000 - 0,293 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/11 13/7	+0,394 ( -0,027)
			0,697 0,000 0,000 - 0,303 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/7 3/1	+0,318 ( -0,103)
			0,659 0,000 0,000 - 0,341 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 26: juggler to play 54

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 48, juggler 70
Position ID: 7z0FBADteiMBAA Match ID: 8InyAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 11/6 9/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/6 9/5	-0,394
			0,303 0,000 0,000 - 0,697 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	11/7 9/4	-0,403 ( -0,010)
			0,298 0,000 0,000 - 0,702 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	11/6 5/1	-0,451 ( -0,057)
			0,275 0,000 0,000 - 0,725 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	11/2	-0,451 ( -0,058)
			0,274 0,000 0,000 - 0,726 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	9/4 5/1	-0,452 ( -0,058)
			0,274 0,000 0,000 - 0,726 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 27: kitwoolsey to play 53

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 48, juggler 61
Position ID: 7foOAADvPQUEAA Match ID: sIHuAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/5	+0,413
			0,706 0,000 0,000 - 0,294 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	13/8 6/3	+0,373 ( -0,040)
			0,686 0,000 0,000 - 0,314 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/8 5/2	+0,287 ( -0,126)
			0,643 0,000 0,000 - 0,357 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/10 6/1	+0,280 ( -0,133)
			0,640 0,000 0,000 - 0,360 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	0	6/1 5/2	+0,060 ( -0,353)
			0,530 0,000 0,000 - 0,470 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Move number 28: juggler to play 46

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 40, juggler 61
Position ID: 7z0LAADt+g4AAA Match ID: 8An6AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/off 4/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 4/off	-0,413
			0,294 0,000 0,000 - 0,706 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/off 5/1	-0,433 ( -0,020)
			0,284 0,000 0,000 - 0,716 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/2 6/off	-0,453 ( -0,040)
			0,274 0,000 0,000 - 0,726 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 29: kitwoolsey to play 56

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 40, juggler 51
Position ID: 7XwDAMB7zwIAAA Match ID: sIH6AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 6/off 5/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 5/off	+0,504
			0,752 0,000 0,000 - 0,248 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/1 5/off	+0,366 ( -0,138)
			0,683 0,000 0,000 - 0,317 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 30: juggler to play 63

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 29, juggler 51
Position ID: 7z0BAEA73wAAAA Match ID: 8AnvAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/off 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 3/off	-0,478
			0,261 0,000 0,000 - 0,739 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/off 5/2	-0,586 ( -0,108)
			0,207 0,000 0,000 - 0,793 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/3 6/off	-0,605 ( -0,127)
			0,198 0,000 0,000 - 0,802 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 31: kitwoolsey to play 65

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 29, juggler 42
Position ID: bb4AAPDeEwAAAA Match ID: sAH3AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 5/off 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	5/off 3/off	+0,443
			0,721 0,000 0,000 - 0,279 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Move number 32: juggler to play 33

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 21, juggler 42
Position ID: 7x0AANDmCwAAAA Match ID: 8IntAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/off 3/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 3/off(2)	-0,212
			0,394 0,000 0,000 - 0,606 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	6/off 5/2 3/off	-0,271 ( -0,059)
			0,365 0,000 0,000 - 0,635 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	5/2(2) 3/off(2)	-0,336 ( -0,124)
			0,332 0,000 0,000 - 0,668 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	6/off 5/2(2)	-0,427 ( -0,215)
			0,286 0,000 0,000 - 0,714 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	5/2(3) 3/off	-0,455 ( -0,242)
			0,273 0,000 0,000 - 0,727 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 33: kitwoolsey to play 11

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 21, juggler 30
Position ID: jQ8AAN47AAAAAA Match ID: sIHkAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 1/off(4)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,385)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	1/off(4)	+0,597
			0,798 0,000 0,000 - 0,202 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	2	2/off 1/off(2)	+0,586 ( -0,011)
			0,793 0,000 0,000 - 0,207 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	3/2 1/off(3)	+0,455 ( -0,142)
			0,727 0,000 0,000 - 0,273 0,000 0,000
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	0	3/off 1/off	+0,115 ( -0,482)
			0,558 0,000 0,000 - 0,442 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	5	0	2/off(2)	+0,098 ( -0,498)
			0,549 0,000 0,000 - 0,451 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

The advantage of a speed board. I need big doubles, Kit takes any.

Move number 34: juggler to play 56

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 17, juggler 30
Position ID: 3gEAAI0PAAAAAA Match ID: 8In6AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 5/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	5/off(2)	-0,462
			0,269 0,000 0,000 - 0,731 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

Nioce one. I'm still in the game.

Move number 35: kitwoolsey to play 15

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 17, juggler 20
Position ID: jQMAAO8AAAAAAA Match ID: sIH0AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 3/off 2/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	3/off 2/1	+0,280
			0,640 0,000 0,000 - 0,360 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	2	0	3/2 3/off	-0,080 ( -0,360)
			0,460 0,000 0,000 - 0,540 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

Move number 36: juggler to play 53

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 13, juggler 20
Position ID: 3QAAgMYBAAAAAA Match ID: 8InuAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 5/2 5/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	5/2 5/off	-0,376
			0,312 0,000 0,000 - 0,688 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

I can't expect to never miss, can I? Darn.

Move number 37: kitwoolsey to play 53

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 13, juggler 12
Position ID: HQEAQDcAAAAAAA Match ID: sIHuAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 3/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	3/off(2)	+0,451
			0,725 0,000 0,000 - 0,275 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Move number 38: juggler to play 44

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 7, juggler 12
Position ID: HQAAoCMAAAAAAA Match ID: 8AnyAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 5/1 2/off(3)

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +1,173)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	5/1 2/off(3)	+0,722
			0,861 0,000 0,000 - 0,139 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

Ah well, only a big double can help me now. Oops. "You roll well" (Paul Lamford). "Got to Las Vegas!" (gnubg).

Move number 39: kitwoolsey to play 54

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 7, juggler 2
Position ID: AwAA6AAAAAAAAA Match ID: sIHyAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 2/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	2/off(2)	-1,000
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Move number 40: juggler to play 41

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 3, juggler 2
Position ID: BQAAGAAAAAAAAA Match ID: 8AnmAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 1/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	1/off(2)	+1,000
			1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

juggler wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 7
Player	kitwoolsey	juggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves	20	20
Unforced moves	17	16
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	19	19
Moves marked doubtful	1	0
Moves marked bad	0	1
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0,060 ( -1,506%)	-0,162 ( -4,039%)
Error rate (per move)	-3,5 ( -0,089%)	-10,1 ( -0,252%)
Chequerplay rating	World class	Advanced
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	1
Rolls marked lucky	2	1
Rolls unmarked	18	18
Rolls marked unlucky	0	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+0,058 ( +1,462%)	+1,482 (+37,050%)
Luck rate (per move)	+2,9 ( +0,073%)	+74,1 ( +1,852%)
Luck rating	None	Go to Las Vegas immediately
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	0	0
Close or actual cube decisions	0	0
Doubles	0	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	0
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	+0,000	+0,000
Error rate (per cube decision)	+0,0	+0,0
Cube decision rating	n/a	n/a
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0,060 ( -1,506%)	-0,162 ( -4,039%)
Error rate (per decision)	-3,5 ( -0,089%)	-10,1 ( -0,252%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-1,5	-4,0
Overall rating	World class	Advanced
Actual result	-31,85%	+31,85%
Luck adjusted result	+3,73%	-3,73%

Match statistics
Player	kitwoolsey	juggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves	108	108
Unforced moves	99	86
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	102	100
Moves marked doubtful	4	4
Moves marked bad	2	3
Moves marked very bad	0	1
Error rate (total)	-0,578 ( -6,779%)	-1,137 (-13,721%)
Error rate (per move)	-5,8 ( -0,068%)	-13,2 ( -0,160%)
Chequerplay rating	Expert	Intermediate
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	3	3
Rolls marked lucky	3	6
Rolls unmarked	96	96
Rolls marked unlucky	3	2
Rolls marked very unlucky	3	1
Luck rate (total)	-0,318 (-12,697%)	+2,560 (+46,235%)
Luck rate (per move)	-2,9 ( -0,118%)	+23,7 ( +0,428%)
Luck rating	None	Good dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	53	80
Close or actual cube decisions	16	16
Doubles	3	4
Takes	1	2
Passes	3	1
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	1 (-0,003 ( -0,041%))
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	2 (-0,102 ( -0,752%))	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	2 (-0,272 ( -1,781%))	1 (-0,304 ( -1,953%))
Error rate (total)	-0,374 ( -2,533%)	-0,307 ( -1,994%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	-23,4 ( -0,158%)	-19,2 ( -0,125%)
Cube decision rating	Casual player	Casual player
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0,952 ( -9,312%)	-1,444 (-15,715%)
Error rate (per decision)	-8,3 ( -0,081%)	-14,2 ( -0,154%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-4,4	-6,7
Overall rating	Advanced	Intermediate
Actual result	-50,00%	+50,00%
Luck adjusted result	+8,93%	-8,93%
Luck based FIBS rating diff.	+118,56
Error based abs. FIBS rating	1958,9	1870,4
Chequerplay errors rating loss	72,7	164,5
Cube errors rating loss	18,4	15,1

[First Game] [Previous Game] [Last Game]

Output generated Sat Jun 28 15:46:47 2008 by GNU Backgammon 0.16-mingw (HTML Export version 1.183)