Game number 7

The score (after 6 games) is: kitwoolsey 5, juggler 6 (match to 7 points, Crawford game)


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Match Information

DateJuni 27, 2008
EventDavide's Spring Tournament 2008
RoundConsolation 3
PlaceFIBS
Annotatorjuggler
CommentI was to play Kit Woolsey in round 3 of the consolation of Davide's Spring Tournament 2008.

While I was looking forward to playing Kit I was also swearing under my breath why it had to be before the final ;-).

Turned out that my dice outperformed his play.

Move number 1: kitwoolsey to play 56

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X ' ' '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 6       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 167, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: sID6AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/13

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/13 +0,314
  0,531 0,126 0,004 - 0,469 0,120 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/18 13/8 +0,307 ( -0,006)
  0,521 0,132 0,006 - 0,479 0,128 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 13/7 +0,269 ( -0,045)
  0,489 0,145 0,007 - 0,511 0,138 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/2 +0,231 ( -0,083)
  0,476 0,140 0,006 - 0,524 0,148 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/18 8/3 +0,173 ( -0,141)
  0,467 0,120 0,005 - 0,533 0,164 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 2: juggler to play 63

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X ' ' '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 3       |
|1X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '6X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 156, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwAyDgc/ABMA Match ID: 8AnvAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 24/15

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/18 13/10 -0,354
  0,459 0,105 0,003 - 0,541 0,136 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 24/15 -0,366 ( -0,011)
  0,451 0,094 0,002 - 0,549 0,134 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/21 13/7 -0,372 ( -0,017)
  0,448 0,111 0,003 - 0,552 0,134 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/4 -0,396 ( -0,042)
  0,442 0,118 0,003 - 0,558 0,140 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/10 13/7 -0,401 ( -0,047)
  0,443 0,122 0,003 - 0,557 0,144 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 3: kitwoolsey to play 55

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X '1O '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 5       | 1 |                 |
|1X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '6X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 156, juggler 158
Position ID: 4HPwCSDgc/ADIA Match ID: sIH2AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 8/3(2) 6/1*(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,337)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) +0,759
  0,625 0,255 0,004 - 0,375 0,072 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) +0,641 ( -0,118)
  0,623 0,198 0,002 - 0,377 0,070 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/3(2) +0,572 ( -0,187)
  0,610 0,176 0,003 - 0,390 0,075 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/3 8/3 6/1* +0,542 ( -0,217)
  0,578 0,193 0,004 - 0,422 0,089 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/3 6/1*(2) +0,496 ( -0,263)
  0,562 0,186 0,003 - 0,438 0,090 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 4: juggler to play 46

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X ' '3X|   | '1X '1O '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 6       |
|1X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '6X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 136, juggler 159
Position ID: M07wAyDgc/AJQA Match ID: 8An6AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves bar/15

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,395)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/15 -0,329
  0,453 0,058 0,001 - 0,547 0,117 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/21 15/9 -0,636 ( -0,307)
  0,410 0,084 0,003 - 0,590 0,229 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 0 bar/21 13/7 -0,882 ( -0,553)
  0,362 0,079 0,002 - 0,638 0,302 0,010  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 bar/21 8/2 -1,016 ( -0,687)
  0,328 0,070 0,002 - 0,672 0,336 0,010  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 5: kitwoolsey to play 35

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X ' '3X|   | '1X '2O '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 5       | 1 |                 |
|1X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '6X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 136, juggler 149
Position ID: 4HPwGQAzTvADIA Match ID: sIH1AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/21 13/8

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 13/5 +0,379
  0,559 0,131 0,001 - 0,441 0,063 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 24/21 13/8 +0,375 ( -0,004)
  0,594 0,094 0,000 - 0,406 0,052 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 6/3 +0,317 ( -0,062)
  0,550 0,108 0,000 - 0,450 0,067 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/21 8/3 +0,261 ( -0,118)
  0,540 0,090 0,000 - 0,460 0,074 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/16 +0,257 ( -0,122)
  0,570 0,059 0,000 - 0,430 0,054 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 6: juggler to play 41

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X ' '3X|   | '2X '2O '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 1       |
| ' ' '1X '5O|   | '3O ' ' '5X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 128, juggler 149
Position ID: M87gAwTgc/AZAA Match ID: 8AnmAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/8

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/8 -0,373
  0,379 0,043 0,001 - 0,621 0,066 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 8/3 -0,459 ( -0,086)
  0,355 0,042 0,001 - 0,645 0,085 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/1 -0,474 ( -0,100)
  0,360 0,046 0,001 - 0,640 0,097 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 6/5 6/2 -0,627 ( -0,253)
  0,337 0,046 0,001 - 0,663 0,151 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/4*/3 -0,630 ( -0,257)
  0,378 0,058 0,001 - 0,622 0,193 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 7: kitwoolsey to play 43

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X ' '3X|   | '2X '2O '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       4 3       | 1 |                 |
| ' ' '1X '5O|   | '4O ' ' '5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 128, juggler 144
Position ID: 4PPgGQAzzuADBA Match ID: sAHuAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/9 8/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/9 8/5 +0,419
  0,610 0,100 0,000 - 0,390 0,045 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/6 +0,403 ( -0,016)
  0,607 0,094 0,000 - 0,393 0,050 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/5 8/4 +0,380 ( -0,038)
  0,583 0,107 0,001 - 0,417 0,060 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/9 6/3 +0,359 ( -0,060)
  0,591 0,088 0,000 - 0,409 0,054 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/5 6/2 +0,349 ( -0,069)
  0,572 0,103 0,001 - 0,428 0,069 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 8: juggler to play 53

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X '1X3X|   | '1X1X2O '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 3       |
| ' ' '1X '5O|   | '4O ' ' '4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 121, juggler 144
Position ID: M53CAwTg8+AZAA Match ID: 8InuAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 8/3 6/3

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/3 6/3 -0,363
  0,393 0,045 0,001 - 0,607 0,075 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 6/3 -0,401 ( -0,038)
  0,371 0,038 0,001 - 0,629 0,072 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/3 6/1 -0,482 ( -0,118)
  0,345 0,037 0,001 - 0,655 0,086 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/5 -0,574 ( -0,211)
  0,356 0,046 0,001 - 0,644 0,143 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 15/10 13/10 -0,639 ( -0,275)
  0,367 0,055 0,002 - 0,633 0,186 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 9: kitwoolsey to play 32

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X '1X3X|   | '1X1X2O '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 2       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O1X '4O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 121, juggler 136
Position ID: jOfgGQAzncIDBA Match ID: sIHpAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/7 8/5

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 8/5 6/4 +0,337
  0,565 0,103 0,001 - 0,435 0,059 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 +0,330 ( -0,007)
  0,562 0,102 0,001 - 0,438 0,061 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
3 2 9/7 8/5 +0,329 ( -0,008)
  0,566 0,099 0,001 - 0,434 0,057 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11 8/5 +0,329 ( -0,008)
  0,563 0,101 0,001 - 0,437 0,059 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 9/4 +0,313 ( -0,023)
  0,538 0,119 0,001 - 0,462 0,079 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 10: juggler to play 52

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X '2X3X|   |1X ' '2O '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
| ' '2O1X '4O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 116, juggler 136
Position ID: M7vAAwSM5+AZAA Match ID: 8InqAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/6

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/6 -0,336
  0,399 0,043 0,001 - 0,601 0,067 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 3/1 -0,391 ( -0,055)
  0,374 0,039 0,001 - 0,626 0,069 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/1 3/1 -0,403 ( -0,067)
  0,382 0,043 0,000 - 0,618 0,084 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11 13/8 -0,454 ( -0,117)
  0,380 0,045 0,001 - 0,620 0,107 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/1 -0,473 ( -0,137)
  0,368 0,044 0,001 - 0,632 0,105 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Here and in the next move I could hit loose (13/8 6/4), but decided not to because losing gammon here would lose the match. If Kit escapes, be it; I would retain some running chances and could cause some difficulties with my made 15pt.

I was scolded for my cowardice by a much better player, but gnubg vindicates me. Hitting increases the winning chances from 40% to 43%, but also the gammon risk to > 20% (from < 8%) which is too damaging here.

In a money game this would be a hit, but not by a wide margin.

Move number 11: kitwoolsey to play 42

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X '2X3X|   |1X ' '2O '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       4 2       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O1X '5O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 116, juggler 129
Position ID: jM/BGQAzu8ADBA Match ID: sAHqAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/9 6/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/9 6/4 +0,353
  0,575 0,102 0,001 - 0,425 0,051 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/9 7/5 +0,338 ( -0,014)
  0,570 0,099 0,001 - 0,430 0,053 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/7 +0,331 ( -0,022)
  0,569 0,097 0,001 - 0,431 0,053 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11 13/9 +0,315 ( -0,037)
  0,558 0,100 0,001 - 0,442 0,061 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/11 6/2 +0,304 ( -0,048)
  0,551 0,101 0,001 - 0,449 0,070 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 12: juggler to play 32

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X1X2X2X|   |1X '1X2O '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 2       |
| ' '2O1X '5O|   | '3O ' ' '3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 110, juggler 129
Position ID: s7aEAwSMz8EZAA Match ID: 8InpAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/8

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/8 -0,370
  0,383 0,034 0,001 - 0,617 0,068 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/1 -0,431 ( -0,062)
  0,361 0,034 0,000 - 0,639 0,077 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/3 -0,446 ( -0,077)
  0,364 0,033 0,000 - 0,636 0,087 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11 6/3 -0,490 ( -0,120)
  0,366 0,044 0,001 - 0,634 0,111 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 6/4* 6/3 -0,636 ( -0,267)
  0,406 0,063 0,002 - 0,594 0,225 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 13: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X1X2X2X|   |1X '1X2O '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       2 6       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O1X '5O|   | '4O ' ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 110, juggler 124
Position ID: jM+DGQCztoQDBA Match ID: sAH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 21/13

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 21/13 +0,535
  0,758 0,010 0,000 - 0,242 0,002 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/5 +0,410 ( -0,125)
  0,604 0,101 0,001 - 0,396 0,041 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/7 6/4 +0,394 ( -0,142)
  0,599 0,098 0,001 - 0,401 0,042 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7 4/2 +0,379 ( -0,156)
  0,591 0,098 0,001 - 0,409 0,048 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/7 9/7 +0,373 ( -0,162)
  0,592 0,094 0,001 - 0,408 0,044 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Here it happens: Kit just walks away and there's nothing I can do. Should I have hit? Kit leads the pip count by more than 20.

Move number 14: juggler to play 52

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X1X2X2X|   |1X '1X2O '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
| ' '2O ' '5O|   | '4O ' ' '4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 102, juggler 124
Position ID: s7aEBwCMz4MZAA Match ID: 8InqAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 13/11 13/8

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/11 13/8 -0,556
  0,230 0,002 0,000 - 0,770 0,008 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 8/3 6/4 -0,562 ( -0,006)
  0,228 0,003 0,000 - 0,772 0,009 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/4 6/1 -0,580 ( -0,024)
  0,221 0,003 0,000 - 0,779 0,011 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/6 8/3 -0,582 ( -0,026)
  0,221 0,002 0,000 - 0,779 0,011 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 6/1 3/1 -0,583 ( -0,027)
  0,220 0,003 0,000 - 0,780 0,011 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 15: kitwoolsey to play 62

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X1X2X2X|   |1X '1X2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       6 2       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O ' '5O|   | '5O ' '1O4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 102, juggler 117
Position ID: jM9HGACztoQHAA Match ID: sAHrAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 13/7 6/4 +0,557
  0,771 0,008 0,000 - 0,229 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 13/5 +0,556 ( -0,001)
  0,770 0,008 0,000 - 0,230 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/7 4/2 +0,548 ( -0,009)
  0,767 0,007 0,000 - 0,233 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7 9/7 +0,544 ( -0,013)
  0,765 0,007 0,000 - 0,235 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/7 5/3 +0,540 ( -0,017)
  0,764 0,006 0,000 - 0,236 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 16: juggler to play 15

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X1X3X2X|   |1X '1X2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 5       |
| ' '2O ' '5O|   | '5O ' '1O3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 94, juggler 117
Position ID: s24JBwCMz0cYAA Match ID: 8In0AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 11/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 11/5 -0,610
  0,201 0,002 0,000 - 0,799 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 8/3 6/5 -0,614 ( -0,004)
  0,199 0,002 0,000 - 0,801 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/2 -0,618 ( -0,008)
  0,198 0,002 0,000 - 0,802 0,007 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 11/6 8/7 -0,620 ( -0,010)
  0,196 0,002 0,000 - 0,804 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/7 8/3 -0,623 ( -0,013)
  0,195 0,001 0,000 - 0,805 0,006 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 17: kitwoolsey to play 54

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X1X3X2X|   |1X '1X2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 4       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O '1O5O|   | '5O ' ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 94, juggler 111
Position ID: TJ8PGACzbgkHAA Match ID: sIHyAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/4 +0,643
  0,815 0,006 0,000 - 0,185 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 6/2 +0,642 ( -0,001)
  0,815 0,006 0,000 - 0,185 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 9/5 +0,637 ( -0,006)
  0,812 0,006 0,000 - 0,188 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/9 7/2 +0,633 ( -0,010)
  0,810 0,006 0,000 - 0,190 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/8 7/3 +0,630 ( -0,013)
  0,809 0,006 0,000 - 0,191 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 18: juggler to play 33

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X2X3X2X|   |1X '1X2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 3       |
| ' '2O '1O5O|   | '5O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 85, juggler 111
Position ID: s90SBgBMnw8YAA Match ID: 8IntAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 8/5(4)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 8/2 8/5(2) -0,555
  0,226 0,002 0,000 - 0,774 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 8/5(4) -0,563 ( -0,008)
  0,222 0,002 0,000 - 0,778 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/5(3) 6/3 -0,569 ( -0,014)
  0,219 0,002 0,000 - 0,781 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/2 8/5 6/3 -0,576 ( -0,021)
  0,215 0,002 0,000 - 0,785 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/2(2) -0,586 ( -0,031)
  0,211 0,002 0,000 - 0,789 0,004 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 19: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X '2X2X3X2X|   |1X '1X2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       2 6       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O '5O5O|   | '1O ' ' '2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 85, juggler 99
Position ID: zPcJGACz3RIGAA Match ID: sAH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 9/3 4/2

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 9/3 6/4 +0,563
  0,779 0,002 0,000 - 0,221 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 9/3 4/2 +0,557 ( -0,006)
  0,776 0,002 0,000 - 0,224 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 9/3 5/3 +0,542 ( -0,020)
  0,769 0,002 0,000 - 0,231 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 9/3 7/5 +0,538 ( -0,024)
  0,766 0,003 0,000 - 0,234 0,002 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 7/1 6/4 +0,531 ( -0,032)
  0,763 0,002 0,000 - 0,237 0,002 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 20: juggler to play 33

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X1X3X1X3X2X|   |1X ' '2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 3       |
| ' '2O '5O5O|   | '1O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 99
Position ID: 67oFBgDM9wkYAA Match ID: 8IntAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 8/2 6/3 5/2

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/2 6/3 5/2 -0,484
  0,261 0,002 0,000 - 0,739 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/3(2) 5/2(2) -0,486 ( -0,002)
  0,260 0,001 0,000 - 0,740 0,002 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/3 5/2(3) -0,488 ( -0,004)
  0,259 0,002 0,000 - 0,741 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/2 5/2(2) -0,494 ( -0,010)
  0,256 0,002 0,000 - 0,744 0,003 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 8/2 6/3(2) -0,508 ( -0,024)
  0,250 0,001 0,000 - 0,750 0,004 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 21: kitwoolsey to play 36

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2X1X3X1X3X2X|   |1X ' '2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 6       | 1 |                 |
| '2O3O '4O4O|   | ' ' ' ' '2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 77, juggler 87
Position ID: dt4DGADrugUGAA Match ID: sIH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 7/1 5/2

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 7/1 5/2 +0,448
  0,720 0,004 0,000 - 0,280 0,004 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 7/1 6/3 +0,387 ( -0,062)
  0,690 0,003 0,000 - 0,310 0,010 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 7/1 4/1 +0,355 ( -0,093)
  0,675 0,002 0,000 - 0,325 0,007 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/4 +0,230 ( -0,218)
  0,606 0,009 0,000 - 0,394 0,007 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/7 5/2 +0,175 ( -0,273)
  0,580 0,007 0,000 - 0,420 0,009 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 22: juggler to play 52

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|3X2X3X1X2X2X|   | ' ' '2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
| '2O3O '4O4O|   | ' ' ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 68, juggler 87
Position ID: t2sDBgB23gMYAA Match ID: 8InqAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/4 6/1

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 6/1 3/1 -0,445
  0,280 0,004 0,000 - 0,720 0,002 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
2 2 6/4 6/1 -0,459 ( -0,015)
  0,282 0,006 0,000 - 0,718 0,012 0,001  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/1 5/3 -0,475 ( -0,031)
  0,267 0,003 0,000 - 0,733 0,005 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 15/8 -0,570 ( -0,126)
  0,228 0,015 0,000 - 0,772 0,013 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 15/10 6/4 -0,575 ( -0,131)
  0,236 0,021 0,001 - 0,764 0,023 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 23: kitwoolsey to play 33

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|3X2X3X1X2X2X|   | ' ' '2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 3       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O3O1O4O2O|   | ' ' ' ' '2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 68, juggler 80
Position ID: 7XoDGAC3awMGAA Match ID: sIHtAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 6/3 5/2(2) 4/1

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,042)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 6/3(2) 5/2(2) +0,349
  0,672 0,002 0,000 - 0,328 0,011 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/3(2) 5/2 4/1 +0,329 ( -0,020)
  0,663 0,002 0,000 - 0,337 0,008 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
?? 2 6/3 5/2(2) 4/1 +0,307 ( -0,042)
  0,651 0,003 0,000 - 0,349 0,009 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
I think gnubg doesn't like the gap from a bear-off perspective. Kit's motive surely was to be able to move 5s without leaving a shot. Kit's move allows him to safely move 51 and 52 while he would use larger rolls to run anyway. Of all 5s only 53 is a problem.

Alas, gnubg would run with 52 anyway a move later! The race is too important.

Move number 24: juggler to play 64

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|4X4X4X ' '1X|   | ' ' '2O ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 4       |
|1O2O3O1O4O2O|   | ' ' ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 56, juggler 80
Position ID: 7z0CBgDtegMYAA Match ID: 8AnzAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 15/11 15/9

Alert: bad move ( -0,128)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 15/9 5/1 -0,273
  0,365 0,008 0,000 - 0,635 0,001 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 15/5 -0,275 ( -0,002)
  0,366 0,030 0,001 - 0,634 0,004 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 15/9 6/2 -0,382 ( -0,109)
  0,324 0,023 0,000 - 0,676 0,015 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
?? 2 15/11 15/9 -0,400 ( -0,128)
  0,300 0,000 0,000 - 0,700 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
gnubg wants me to stay with one, which, to be honest, I didn't even consider. I was just so glad that I could race without wasting more pips (after all, that was my advantage in this position). A typical case where an important change in the strategic conditions -- Kit's board had crashed with the 33 -- had not properly registered.

The pip count was of course misleading so I thought I still had considerable chances in the race (gnubg says it's 30% ;-) ).

Move number 25: kitwoolsey to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|4X4X4X ' '1X|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       2 6       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O3O1O4O2O|   | ' '1O '1O2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 56, juggler 70
Position ID: 7XojAQDvPQIGAA Match ID: sAH5AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/5 +0,422
  0,711 0,000 0,000 - 0,289 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/7 6/4 +0,415 ( -0,007)
  0,707 0,000 0,000 - 0,293 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/11 13/7 +0,394 ( -0,027)
  0,697 0,000 0,000 - 0,303 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7 3/1 +0,318 ( -0,103)
  0,659 0,000 0,000 - 0,341 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 26: juggler to play 54

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|4X4X4X '1X1X|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 4       |
|1O2O3O1O4O2O|   | ' '1O '1O1X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 48, juggler 70
Position ID: 7z0FBADteiMBAA Match ID: 8InyAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 11/6 9/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 11/6 9/5 -0,394
  0,303 0,000 0,000 - 0,697 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 11/7 9/4 -0,403 ( -0,010)
  0,298 0,000 0,000 - 0,702 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 11/6 5/1 -0,451 ( -0,057)
  0,275 0,000 0,000 - 0,725 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 11/2 -0,451 ( -0,058)
  0,274 0,000 0,000 - 0,726 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 9/4 5/1 -0,452 ( -0,058)
  0,274 0,000 0,000 - 0,726 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 27: kitwoolsey to play 53

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|4X4X4X '1X1X|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 3       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O3O1O5O3O|   | ' ' ' ' '1X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 48, juggler 61
Position ID: 7foOAADvPQUEAA Match ID: sIHuAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/5 +0,413
  0,706 0,000 0,000 - 0,294 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 6/3 +0,373 ( -0,040)
  0,686 0,000 0,000 - 0,314 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 5/2 +0,287 ( -0,126)
  0,643 0,000 0,000 - 0,357 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/10 6/1 +0,280 ( -0,133)
  0,640 0,000 0,000 - 0,360 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 6/1 5/2 +0,060 ( -0,353)
  0,530 0,000 0,000 - 0,470 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 28: juggler to play 46

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|4X4X4X '2X1X|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 6       |
|1O2O3O1O5O3O|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 40, juggler 61
Position ID: 7z0LAADt+g4AAA Match ID: 8An6AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/off 4/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 4/off -0,413
  0,294 0,000 0,000 - 0,706 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/off 5/1 -0,433 ( -0,020)
  0,284 0,000 0,000 - 0,716 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/2 6/off -0,453 ( -0,040)
  0,274 0,000 0,000 - 0,726 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 29: kitwoolsey to play 56

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|4X4X4X '2X1X|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 6       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O3O '5O2O|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 40, juggler 51
Position ID: 7XwDAMB7zwIAAA Match ID: sIH6AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 6/off 5/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 5/off +0,504
  0,752 0,000 0,000 - 0,248 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/1 5/off +0,366 ( -0,138)
  0,683 0,000 0,000 - 0,317 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 30: juggler to play 63

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|4X4X4X '1X '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 3       |
|1O2O3O '5O2O|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 29, juggler 51
Position ID: 7z0BAEA73wAAAA Match ID: 8AnvAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/off 3/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 3/off -0,478
  0,261 0,000 0,000 - 0,739 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/off 5/2 -0,586 ( -0,108)
  0,207 0,000 0,000 - 0,793 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/3 6/off -0,605 ( -0,127)
  0,198 0,000 0,000 - 0,802 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 31: kitwoolsey to play 65

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|4X4X4X '1X '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       6 5       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O2O '5O1O|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 29, juggler 42
Position ID: bb4AAPDeEwAAAA Match ID: sAH3AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 5/off 3/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 5/off 3/off +0,443
  0,721 0,000 0,000 - 0,279 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 32: juggler to play 33

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|4X4X3X ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 3       |
|1O2O2O '5O1O|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 21, juggler 42
Position ID: 7x0AANDmCwAAAA Match ID: 8IntAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 6/off 3/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 3/off(2) -0,212
  0,394 0,000 0,000 - 0,606 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 6/off 5/2 3/off -0,271 ( -0,059)
  0,365 0,000 0,000 - 0,635 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 5/2(2) 3/off(2) -0,336 ( -0,124)
  0,332 0,000 0,000 - 0,668 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 6/off 5/2(2) -0,427 ( -0,215)
  0,286 0,000 0,000 - 0,714 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 5/2(3) 3/off -0,455 ( -0,242)
  0,273 0,000 0,000 - 0,727 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 33: kitwoolsey to play 11

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|4X4X3X ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 1       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O ' '5O '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 21, juggler 30
Position ID: jQ8AAN47AAAAAA Match ID: sIHkAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 1/off(4)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,385)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 1/off(4) +0,597
  0,798 0,000 0,000 - 0,202 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 2/off 1/off(2) +0,586 ( -0,011)
  0,793 0,000 0,000 - 0,207 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 3/2 1/off(3) +0,455 ( -0,142)
  0,727 0,000 0,000 - 0,273 0,000 0,000  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 0 3/off 1/off +0,115 ( -0,482)
  0,558 0,000 0,000 - 0,442 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 2/off(2) +0,098 ( -0,498)
  0,549 0,000 0,000 - 0,451 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Annotation
The advantage of a speed board. I need big doubles, Kit takes any.

Move number 34: juggler to play 56

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '4X3X ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 6       |
|1O2O ' '5O '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 17, juggler 30
Position ID: 3gEAAI0PAAAAAA Match ID: 8In6AFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 5/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 5/off(2) -0,462
  0,269 0,000 0,000 - 0,731 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Annotation
Nioce one. I'm still in the game.

Move number 35: kitwoolsey to play 15

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| '4X3X ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 5       | 1 |                 |
|1O2O ' '3O '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 17, juggler 20
Position ID: jQMAAO8AAAAAAA Match ID: sIH0AFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 3/off 2/1

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 3/off 2/1 +0,280
  0,640 0,000 0,000 - 0,360 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  2 0 3/2 3/off -0,080 ( -0,360)
  0,460 0,000 0,000 - 0,540 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Annotation

Move number 36: juggler to play 53

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X3X2X ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 3       |
|1O2O ' '3O '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 13, juggler 20
Position ID: 3QAAgMYBAAAAAA Match ID: 8InuAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 5/2 5/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 5/2 5/off -0,376
  0,312 0,000 0,000 - 0,688 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Annotation
I can't expect to never miss, can I? Darn.

Move number 37: kitwoolsey to play 53

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X3X2X ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 3       | 1 |                 |
|1O3O ' '1O '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 13, juggler 12
Position ID: HQEAQDcAAAAAAA Match ID: sIHuAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 3/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 3/off(2) +0,451
  0,725 0,000 0,000 - 0,275 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 38: juggler to play 44

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X3X ' ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 4       |
|1O3O ' '1O '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 7, juggler 12
Position ID: HQAAoCMAAAAAAA Match ID: 8AnyAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 5/1 2/off(3)

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +1,173)

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 5/1 2/off(3) +0,722
  0,861 0,000 0,000 - 0,139 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Annotation
Ah well, only a big double can help me now. Oops. "You roll well" (Paul Lamford). "Got to Las Vegas!" (gnubg).

Move number 39: kitwoolsey to play 54

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X3X ' ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 4       | 1 |                 |
|2O ' ' ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 7, juggler 2
Position ID: AwAA6AAAAAAAAA Match ID: sIHyAFAAMAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 2/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 2/off(2) -1,000
  0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 40: juggler to play 41

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X1X ' ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 1       |
|2O ' ' ' ' '|   | ' ' ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 3, juggler 2
Position ID: BQAAGAAAAAAAAA Match ID: 8AnmAFAAMAAA

• juggler moves 1/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 1/off(2) +1,000
  1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

juggler wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 7
Playerkitwoolseyjuggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves 20 20
Unforced moves 17 16
Unmarked moves 0 0
Moves marked good 19 19
Moves marked doubtful 1 0
Moves marked bad 0 1
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error rate (total) -0,060 ( -1,506%) -0,162 ( -4,039%)
Error rate (per move) -3,5 ( -0,089%) -10,1 ( -0,252%)
Chequerplay rating World class Advanced
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 0 1
Rolls marked lucky 2 1
Rolls unmarked 18 18
Rolls marked unlucky 0 0
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck rate (total) +0,058 ( +1,462%) +1,482 (+37,050%)
Luck rate (per move) +2,9 ( +0,073%) +74,1 ( +1,852%)
Luck rating None Go to Las Vegas immediately
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 0 0
Close or actual cube decisions 0 0
Doubles 0 0
Takes 0 0
Passes 0 0
Missed doubles (below CP) 0 0
Missed doubles (above CP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (below DP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (above TG) 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 0 0
Error rate (total) +0,000 +0,000
Error rate (per cube decision) +0,0 +0,0
Cube decision rating n/a n/a
Overall statistics
Error rate (total) -0,060 ( -1,506%) -0,162 ( -4,039%)
Error rate (per decision) -3,5 ( -0,089%) -10,1 ( -0,252%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate -1,5 -4,0
Overall rating World class Advanced
Actual result -31,85% +31,85%
Luck adjusted result +3,73% -3,73%

Match statistics
Playerkitwoolseyjuggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves 108 108
Unforced moves 99 86
Unmarked moves 0 0
Moves marked good 102 100
Moves marked doubtful 4 4
Moves marked bad 2 3
Moves marked very bad 0 1
Error rate (total) -0,578 ( -6,779%) -1,137 (-13,721%)
Error rate (per move) -5,8 ( -0,068%) -13,2 ( -0,160%)
Chequerplay rating Expert Intermediate
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 3 3
Rolls marked lucky 3 6
Rolls unmarked 96 96
Rolls marked unlucky 3 2
Rolls marked very unlucky 3 1
Luck rate (total) -0,318 (-12,697%) +2,560 (+46,235%)
Luck rate (per move) -2,9 ( -0,118%) +23,7 ( +0,428%)
Luck rating None Good dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 53 80
Close or actual cube decisions 16 16
Doubles 3 4
Takes 1 2
Passes 3 1
Missed doubles (below CP) 0 1 (-0,003 ( -0,041%))
Missed doubles (above CP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (below DP) 2 (-0,102 ( -0,752%)) 0
Wrong doubles (above TG) 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 2 (-0,272 ( -1,781%)) 1 (-0,304 ( -1,953%))
Error rate (total) -0,374 ( -2,533%) -0,307 ( -1,994%)
Error rate (per cube decision) -23,4 ( -0,158%) -19,2 ( -0,125%)
Cube decision rating Casual player Casual player
Overall statistics
Error rate (total) -0,952 ( -9,312%) -1,444 (-15,715%)
Error rate (per decision) -8,3 ( -0,081%) -14,2 ( -0,154%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate -4,4 -6,7
Overall rating Advanced Intermediate
Actual result -50,00% +50,00%
Luck adjusted result +8,93% -8,93%
Luck based FIBS rating diff. +118,56
Error based abs. FIBS rating 1958,9 1870,4
Chequerplay errors rating loss 72,7 164,5
Cube errors rating loss 18,4 15,1

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