Game number 1

The score (after 0 games) is: kitwoolsey 0, juggler 0 (match to 7 points)


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Match Information

DateJuni 27, 2008
EventDavide's Spring Tournament 2008
RoundConsolation 3
PlaceFIBS
Annotatorjuggler
CommentI was to play Kit Woolsey in round 3 of the consolation of Davide's Spring Tournament 2008.

While I was looking forward to playing Kit I was also swearing under my breath why it had to be before the final ;-).

Turned out that my dice outperformed his play.

Move number 1: juggler to play 23

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X ' ' '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 3       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '5X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 167, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAjtAAAAAAAA

• juggler moves 24/21 13/11

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/21 13/11 +0,048
  0,512 0,140 0,007 - 0,488 0,133 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/11 13/10 +0,036 ( -0,011)
  0,506 0,153 0,007 - 0,494 0,137 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/22 13/10 +0,022 ( -0,025)
  0,505 0,139 0,006 - 0,495 0,133 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/22 24/21 -0,006 ( -0,053)
  0,500 0,127 0,007 - 0,500 0,134 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/8 -0,009 ( -0,056)
  0,497 0,138 0,006 - 0,503 0,139 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 2: kitwoolsey to play 36

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O ' '1O '5X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 6       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 167, juggler 162
Position ID: 4HPkASLgc/ABMA Match ID: MIH5AAAAAAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/4*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,035(Money: -0,034)
 0,488 0,133 0,004 - 0,512 0,140 0,007
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,048 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,048
3.Double, take -0,421 -0,373
Proper cube action:No double, take (26,3%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/4* -0,078
  0,479 0,139 0,006 - 0,521 0,148 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/15 -0,155 ( -0,077)
  0,468 0,110 0,004 - 0,532 0,158 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/21 24/18 -0,190 ( -0,112)
  0,461 0,101 0,004 - 0,539 0,156 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/18 13/10 -0,192 ( -0,114)
  0,459 0,110 0,004 - 0,541 0,160 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/21 13/7 -0,211 ( -0,133)
  0,447 0,116 0,004 - 0,553 0,155 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 3: juggler to play 16

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1O ' '1X '5X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 6       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O4X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 158, juggler 166
Position ID: yOfgATDgc+QBUA Match ID: cIn4AAAAAAAA

• juggler moves bar/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,054(Money: +0,053)
 0,521 0,148 0,007 - 0,479 0,139 0,006
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,078 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,922
3.Double, take -0,219 -0,297
Proper cube action:No double, take (24,4%)

 

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,043)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 bar/24 11/5 -0,130
  0,473 0,136 0,007 - 0,527 0,168 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/24 13/7 -0,170 ( -0,040)
  0,463 0,134 0,006 - 0,537 0,175 0,011  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
3 2 bar/18 -0,173 ( -0,043)
  0,470 0,117 0,006 - 0,530 0,184 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/24 8/2 -0,323 ( -0,193)
  0,426 0,124 0,006 - 0,574 0,196 0,013  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 4: kitwoolsey to play 15

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O ' '1X '5X|   |1O3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 5       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 158, juggler 159
Position ID: 4HPkQSDI5+ABMA Match ID: MIH0AAAAAAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 8/3 4/3

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,130(Money: +0,127)
 0,530 0,184 0,008 - 0,470 0,117 0,006
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,173 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,827
3.Double, take -0,075 -0,248
Proper cube action:No double, take (23,1%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/3 4/3 -0,034
  0,483 0,147 0,004 - 0,517 0,130 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 8/7* 6/1* -0,050 ( -0,016)
  0,485 0,162 0,007 - 0,515 0,162 0,011  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/23 13/8 -0,129 ( -0,095)
  0,463 0,130 0,004 - 0,537 0,141 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/7* -0,144 ( -0,111)
  0,464 0,137 0,006 - 0,536 0,162 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/23 6/1* -0,185 ( -0,151)
  0,451 0,130 0,004 - 0,549 0,153 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 5: juggler to play 15

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1O '2X ' '5X|   |1O2X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 5       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 152, juggler 159
Position ID: jM/gATDgc+RBIA Match ID: cIn0AAAAAAAA

• juggler moves 24/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,018(Money: +0,018)
 0,517 0,130 0,005 - 0,483 0,147 0,004
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,034 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,966
3.Double, take -0,289 -0,322
Proper cube action:No double, take (25,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/18 +0,094
  0,530 0,114 0,003 - 0,470 0,112 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 18/13 11/10 -0,117 ( -0,210)
  0,485 0,115 0,005 - 0,515 0,171 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/23 18/13 -0,137 ( -0,231)
  0,483 0,109 0,004 - 0,517 0,180 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 18/13 6/5 -0,168 ( -0,262)
  0,479 0,114 0,004 - 0,521 0,188 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 13/8 11/10 -0,235 ( -0,329)
  0,458 0,117 0,007 - 0,542 0,207 0,008  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 6: kitwoolsey to play 11

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' '2X ' '5X|   |2O2X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 1       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 152, juggler 153
Position ID: 4HPkwQCMz+ABMA Match ID: MIHkAAAAAAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 24/22 6/5(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,063(Money: -0,063)
 0,470 0,112 0,002 - 0,530 0,114 0,003
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,094 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,094
3.Double, take -0,498 -0,405
Proper cube action:No double, take (27,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/22 6/5(2) +0,048
  0,507 0,124 0,002 - 0,493 0,099 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/23 6/5(3) +0,034 ( -0,014)
  0,502 0,126 0,002 - 0,498 0,102 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 6/4 6/5(2) -0,033 ( -0,081)
  0,483 0,130 0,003 - 0,517 0,113 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/21 6/5 -0,056 ( -0,104)
  0,481 0,118 0,003 - 0,519 0,115 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/23(2) 6/5(2) -0,056 ( -0,104)
  0,476 0,118 0,002 - 0,524 0,103 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 7: juggler to play 22

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' '2X '2X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 2       |
|1X '1X ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 148, juggler 153
Position ID: zM7gASTgc+TBAA Match ID: cAnpAAAAAAAA

• juggler moves 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,039(Money: -0,039)
 0,493 0,099 0,003 - 0,507 0,124 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,048 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,048
3.Double, take -0,420 -0,372
Proper cube action:No double, take (26,2%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/11(2) 6/4(2) +0,294
  0,587 0,118 0,003 - 0,413 0,090 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/11 8/4 6/4 +0,223 ( -0,071)
  0,566 0,123 0,003 - 0,434 0,100 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/11 6/4(3) +0,211 ( -0,083)
  0,564 0,113 0,003 - 0,436 0,097 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 18/16(2) 6/4(2) +0,157 ( -0,137)
  0,560 0,094 0,002 - 0,440 0,111 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 18/16(2) 13/11(2) +0,095 ( -0,199)
  0,541 0,082 0,002 - 0,459 0,106 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 8: kitwoolsey to play 55

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' '2X '2X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 5       | 1 |                 |
|1X '1X2O '3O|   | '3O ' '3O4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 148, juggler 145
Position ID: mHOcwQDMzuABJA Match ID: MIH2AAAAAAAA

• kitwoolsey moves 13/3(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,205(Money: -0,204)
 0,413 0,090 0,002 - 0,587 0,118 0,003
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,294 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,294
3.Double, take -0,824 -0,530
Proper cube action:No double, take (29,1%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/3(2) -0,327
  0,409 0,112 0,002 - 0,591 0,142 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/3 13/8 6/1 -0,333 ( -0,006)
  0,408 0,122 0,002 - 0,592 0,153 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8(4) -0,351 ( -0,024)
  0,393 0,079 0,001 - 0,607 0,092 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/8(2) 6/1(2) -0,356 ( -0,029)
  0,406 0,118 0,001 - 0,594 0,161 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/3 6/1(2) -0,454 ( -0,127)
  0,386 0,109 0,001 - 0,614 0,178 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 9: juggler to play 55

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' '4X '2X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 5       |
|1X '1X2O '3O|   | '3O ' '3O2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 128, juggler 145
Position ID: PDuDASSYc5zBAA Match ID: cIn2AAAAAAAA

• juggler moves 11/1* 8/3*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,216(Money: +0,215)
 0,591 0,142 0,005 - 0,409 0,112 0,002
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,327 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,673
3.Double, take +0,164 -0,163
Proper cube action:No double, take (19,5%)

 

Alert: very bad move ( -0,246)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,405)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 13/3*(2) +0,907
  0,701 0,265 0,009 - 0,299 0,068 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/3* 11/6 8/3 +0,824 ( -0,083)
  0,676 0,278 0,012 - 0,324 0,094 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 18/13(2) 8/3*(2) +0,790 ( -0,117)
  0,694 0,193 0,008 - 0,306 0,071 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 18/3* 8/3 +0,739 ( -0,168)
  0,684 0,224 0,013 - 0,316 0,093 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
5 2 11/1* 8/3*(2) +0,661 ( -0,246)
  0,650 0,308 0,009 - 0,350 0,127 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
It was too tempting to put 2 checker of* Kit Woolsey* on the bar :-). I still think it looks pretty good, but gnubg's suggestion is just rock solid no-risk full-control.

Move number 10: kitwoolsey to play 62

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' '4X '2X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '2O|
|                   | 2X|                   |
|       6 2       | 1 |                 |
|1O '2O2O '3O|   | '1O ' '2O2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 132, juggler 125
Position ID: 2ZyYwQA8O4MBYA Match ID: MAHrAAAAAAAA

• kitwoolsey moves bar/23

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,491(Money: -0,484)
 0,350 0,127 0,005 - 0,650 0,308 0,009
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,661 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,661
3.Double, take -1,462 -0,801
Proper cube action:No double, take (32,6%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 bar/23 -0,715
  0,352 0,110 0,002 - 0,648 0,279 0,012  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 11: juggler doubles to 2

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| ' '4X '2X3X|   |2O2X ' ' '2O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       [2]       |
|1O1X2O2O '3O|   | '1O ' '2O2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: kitwoolsey 130, juggler 125
Position ID: PDuDAUjZnJjBAA Match ID: cBHgAAAAAAAA

• kitwoolsey rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0,265)! [very bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,487(Money: +0,479)
 0,650 0,281 0,010 - 0,350 0,108 0,003
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.Double, take +0,735 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,265
3.No double +0,675 -0,060
Proper cube action:Double, take

 


Annotation
Kit's 3pt board is good enough to make the error of the drop too big even with a skewed MET ;-).

juggler wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 1
Playerkitwoolseyjuggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves 5 5
Unforced moves 4 5
Unmarked moves 0 0
Moves marked good 5 3
Moves marked doubtful 0 1
Moves marked bad 0 0
Moves marked very bad 0 1
Error rate (total) +0,000 -0,289 ( -1,824%)
Error rate (per move) +0,0 -57,8 ( -0,365%)
Chequerplay rating Supernatural Awful!
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 0 0
Rolls marked lucky 0 1
Rolls unmarked 5 4
Rolls marked unlucky 0 0
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck rate (total) -0,629 ( -3,971%) +0,464 ( +2,928%)
Luck rate (per move) -125,8 ( -0,794%) +92,7 ( +0,586%)
Luck rating Haaa-haaa Go to Las Vegas immediately
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 6 5
Close or actual cube decisions 1 1
Doubles 0 1
Takes 0 0
Passes 1 0
Missed doubles (below CP) 0 0
Missed doubles (above CP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (below DP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (above TG) 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 1 (-0,265 ( -1,671%)) 0
Error rate (total) -0,265 ( -1,671%) +0,000
Error rate (per cube decision) -264,6 ( -1,671%) +0,0
Cube decision rating Awful! Supernatural
Overall statistics
Error rate (total) -0,265 ( -1,671%) -0,289 ( -1,824%)
Error rate (per decision) -52,9 ( -0,334%) -48,1 ( -0,304%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate -26,5 -28,9
Overall rating Awful! Awful!
Actual result -6,31% +6,31%
Luck adjusted result +0,58% -0,58%

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