Game number 3

The score (after 2 games) is: falafelBG 6, juggler 0 (match to 11 points)

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Match Information

DateMai 09, 2009
EventFibsLeaGammon Exhibition Match 2009
PlaceFIBS
Annotatorjuggler
CommentFranck "Tomawaky" Del Rio, the organizer of FibsLeaGammon, managed to arrange a public match between Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon and the winner of the 2009 Masters Tournament. A few good rolls got me in that position and I had the honor to play the No 1 of the BG Giants List.

My late grandmother would have said "That's the way you play with students!" and laughed her head off. Falafel was much politer :-).

Move number 1: falafelBG to play 12

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|5O ' ' '3X '|   |5X ' ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 2       | 1 |                 |
|5X ' ' '3O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 167, juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIBoAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 13/11 6/5

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/23 13/11 -0,155
  0,507 0,140 0,006 - 0,493 0,134 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 2 2 13/11 6/5 -0,171 ( -0,016)
  0,509 0,145 0,006 - 0,491 0,143 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/21 -0,178 ( -0,024)
  0,502 0,130 0,006 - 0,498 0,135 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/10 -0,193 ( -0,039)
  0,497 0,141 0,006 - 0,503 0,138 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/23 24/22 -0,202 ( -0,047)
  0,494 0,125 0,005 - 0,506 0,134 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 2: juggler to play 52

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|5O1X ' '3X '|   |4X1X ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
|4X ' ' '3O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 164, juggler 167
Position ID: 0HPkATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIlqAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves 13/11 13/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,012(Money: -0,018)
 0,491 0,143 0,008 - 0,509 0,145 0,006
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,171 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,829
3.Double, take +0,053 -0,118
Proper cube action:No double, take (12,5%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/22 13/8 -0,029
  0,449 0,114 0,005 - 0,551 0,165 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 2 2 13/11 13/8 -0,046 ( -0,017)
  0,440 0,125 0,006 - 0,560 0,180 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 6/4 -0,054 ( -0,025)
  0,439 0,121 0,005 - 0,561 0,177 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/6 -0,134 ( -0,105)
  0,418 0,113 0,005 - 0,582 0,187 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/11 8/3 -0,177 ( -0,148)
  0,407 0,115 0,006 - 0,593 0,205 0,015  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 3: falafelBG to play 52

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O1X ' '3X '|   |4X1X ' ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 2       | 1 |                 |
|4X1O ' '4O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 164, juggler 160
Position ID: 4PPIATDQc+QBMA Match ID: MIFqAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 8/3 5/3

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,168(Money: +0,178)
 0,560 0,180 0,009 - 0,440 0,125 0,006
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,046 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,954
3.Double, take -0,585 -0,631
Proper cube action:No double, take (39,8%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 8/3 5/3 -0,161
  0,510 0,164 0,008 - 0,490 0,148 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/11 13/8 -0,184 ( -0,022)
  0,507 0,153 0,007 - 0,493 0,151 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/6 -0,284 ( -0,122)
  0,483 0,148 0,007 - 0,517 0,161 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/8 11/9 -0,289 ( -0,127)
  0,483 0,142 0,006 - 0,517 0,162 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/22 13/8 -0,299 ( -0,138)
  0,483 0,137 0,007 - 0,517 0,174 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 4: juggler to play 24

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O1X ' '2X '|   |4X ' '2X '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 4       |
|4X1O ' '4O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 157, juggler 160
Position ID: jGfkATDg88gBMA Match ID: cAlxAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves 8/4 6/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,028(Money: -0,037)
 0,490 0,148 0,007 - 0,510 0,164 0,008
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,161 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,839
3.Double, take +0,047 -0,115
Proper cube action:No double, take (12,0%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 8/4 6/4 +0,292
  0,520 0,170 0,009 - 0,480 0,153 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/9 11/9 +0,106 ( -0,186)
  0,478 0,144 0,007 - 0,522 0,166 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/20 13/11 +0,029 ( -0,263)
  0,464 0,131 0,009 - 0,536 0,195 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11 8/4 -0,008 ( -0,301)
  0,449 0,135 0,007 - 0,551 0,192 0,013  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 24/20 11/9 -0,039 ( -0,331)
  0,446 0,125 0,008 - 0,554 0,202 0,009  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 5: falafelBG to play 51

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O1X ' '2X '|   |4X ' '2X '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 1       | 1 |                 |
|4X1O ' '3O '|   |4O '2O ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 157, juggler 154
Position ID: mOfIATCMZ+QBMA Match ID: MIFmAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 24/23 13/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,063(Money: -0,057)
 0,480 0,153 0,008 - 0,520 0,170 0,009
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,292 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,292
3.Double, take -1,479 -1,187
Proper cube action:No double, take (47,9%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 24/23 13/8 -0,407
  0,460 0,148 0,008 - 0,540 0,195 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 11/10 -0,439 ( -0,032)
  0,448 0,146 0,007 - 0,552 0,181 0,011  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/8 6/5 -0,439 ( -0,032)
  0,455 0,147 0,007 - 0,545 0,194 0,016  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/23 11/6 -0,504 ( -0,097)
  0,436 0,133 0,006 - 0,564 0,198 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 24/18 -0,504 ( -0,097)
  0,448 0,131 0,008 - 0,552 0,221 0,012  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 6: juggler to play 44

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O1X ' '3X '|   |4X ' '2X '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 4       |
|3X1O ' '3O '|   |4O '2O '1X1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 151, juggler 154
Position ID: jOfIASiY58gBMA Match ID: cAlyAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves 24/16 6/2*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,132(Money: +0,127)
 0,540 0,195 0,010 - 0,460 0,148 0,008
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,407 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,593
3.Double, take +0,377 -0,030
Proper cube action:No double, take (4,8%)

 

Alert: very bad move ( -0,261)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,423)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/20(2) 6/2*(2) +0,897
  0,666 0,239 0,012 - 0,334 0,069 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/20 13/9 6/2*(2) +0,706 ( -0,191)
  0,606 0,262 0,018 - 0,394 0,121 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/16(2) +0,665 ( -0,231)
  0,630 0,137 0,005 - 0,370 0,085 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 24/20 8/4 6/2*(2) +0,656 ( -0,241)
  0,591 0,256 0,017 - 0,409 0,124 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/9(2) 6/2*(2) +0,648 ( -0,248)
  0,580 0,262 0,016 - 0,420 0,131 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 6 2 24/16 6/2*(2) +0,636 ( -0,261)
  0,604 0,225 0,012 - 0,396 0,123 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
People said that I was chatting too much, and maybe I was. I wanted to gain initiative. I looked at my board and thought "ah, he needs 2 and 4 to enter, that duplicates nicely with the 2 and 4 he needs to hit me on the 16". But he needed 1 and 3 to enter, so it was actually an anti-duplication. A mistake I could not afford against falafel.

Move number 7: falafelBG to play 23

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O1X '1O3X '|   |4X ' '2X '1O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 3       | 1 |                 |
|3X1O ' '3O '|   |2O '2O '2O1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 153, juggler 138
Position ID: ZubIESCM58gBUA Match ID: MAFtAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves bar/22 11/9*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,317(Money: -0,316)
 0,396 0,123 0,005 - 0,604 0,225 0,012
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,636 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,636
3.Double, take -1,835 -1,199
Proper cube action:No double, take (42,3%)

 

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,308)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 bar/22 11/9* -0,264
  0,490 0,171 0,009 - 0,510 0,181 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/22 24/22 -0,477 ( -0,213)
  0,413 0,100 0,002 - 0,587 0,128 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/22 13/11 -0,559 ( -0,295)
  0,423 0,122 0,004 - 0,577 0,201 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 0 bar/22 8/6 -0,927 ( -0,663)
  0,369 0,104 0,004 - 0,631 0,248 0,015  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 bar/20 -0,945 ( -0,681)
  0,374 0,106 0,004 - 0,626 0,266 0,016  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 8: juggler to play 51

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O ' '1X3X '|   |4X ' '2X '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 1       |
|3X1O ' '3O '|   |2O '2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 148, juggler 147
Position ID: jOfCASRm5sgBUA Match ID: cIlmAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves bar/24 11/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,037(Money: +0,030)
 0,510 0,181 0,010 - 0,490 0,171 0,009
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,264 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,736
3.Double, take +0,203 -0,060
Proper cube action:No double, take (7,6%)

 

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,079)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 bar/24 8/3* +0,358
  0,523 0,216 0,012 - 0,477 0,167 0,013  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 2 2 bar/24 11/6 +0,280 ( -0,079)
  0,509 0,185 0,007 - 0,491 0,158 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/20 24/23 +0,215 ( -0,143)
  0,500 0,168 0,009 - 0,500 0,180 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/20 11/10 +0,201 ( -0,157)
  0,495 0,172 0,008 - 0,505 0,176 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 bar/24 13/8 +0,179 ( -0,179)
  0,487 0,170 0,006 - 0,513 0,167 0,010  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Yes, funny... I didn't play the way I normally would, self confident to the point of being cocky. Hitting seems strong here in restrospect, since I the better board and it prevents falafel from using his nice builders effectively. Thus hitting has tactical advantages (as always) as well as strategic ones.

Move number 9: falafelBG to play 65

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O ' '1X3X '|   |4X ' '2X '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       6 5       | 1 |                 |
|3X ' ' '3O '|   |3O '2O1X2O1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 148, juggler 141
Position ID: Zs7BATCM58IBJA Match ID: MAF3AWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 22/11

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,048(Money: -0,043)
 0,491 0,158 0,009 - 0,509 0,185 0,007
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,280 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,280
3.Double, take -1,384 -1,105
Proper cube action:No double, take (46,3%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 22/11 -0,313
  0,493 0,148 0,009 - 0,507 0,215 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/13 -0,363 ( -0,050)
  0,482 0,134 0,009 - 0,518 0,224 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 0 13/8 9/3 -0,668 ( -0,355)
  0,416 0,125 0,006 - 0,584 0,233 0,010  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 22/16 13/8 -0,689 ( -0,377)
  0,429 0,129 0,008 - 0,571 0,267 0,012  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 22/16 8/3 -0,796 ( -0,484)
  0,408 0,120 0,007 - 0,592 0,272 0,014  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 10: juggler to play 46

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O1X '1X3X '|   |4X ' '2X '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 6       |
|3X ' ' '3O '|   |3O '2O '2O1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 137, juggler 141
Position ID: jOeSAyBmzsEBMA Match ID: cAl6AWAAAAAA

• juggler moves 24/14*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,082(Money: +0,079)
 0,507 0,215 0,007 - 0,493 0,148 0,009
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,313 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,687
3.Double, take +0,277 -0,036
Proper cube action:No double, take (5,0%)

 

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,390)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 0 24/14* +0,767
  0,634 0,246 0,011 - 0,366 0,100 0,003  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  2 0 24/18 13/9 +0,062 ( -0,705)
  0,457 0,164 0,007 - 0,543 0,193 0,009  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  3 0 24/18 8/4 +0,060 ( -0,707)
  0,456 0,159 0,007 - 0,544 0,180 0,006  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 13/7 8/4 +0,058 ( -0,710)
  0,449 0,168 0,005 - 0,551 0,162 0,010  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 13/3 +0,026 ( -0,742)
  0,441 0,162 0,005 - 0,559 0,166 0,011  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 11: falafelBG to play 31

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O1O '1X3X '|   |4X ' '2X '1O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       3 1       | 1 |                 |
|3X ' ' '3O '|   |3O '2O '2O1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 151, juggler 131
Position ID: Zs7BBSCM58IBUA Match ID: MIFlAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves bar/22 9/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,422(Money: -0,425)
 0,362 0,101 0,003 - 0,638 0,242 0,012
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,805 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,805
3.Double, take -1,931 -1,127
Proper cube action:No double, take (38,4%)

 

Alert: bad move ( -0,121)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 bar/24 13/10 -0,822
  0,364 0,089 0,002 - 0,636 0,188 0,015  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/24 8/5 -0,896 ( -0,074)
  0,365 0,095 0,003 - 0,635 0,218 0,021  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/24 9/6 -0,897 ( -0,075)
  0,347 0,084 0,002 - 0,653 0,191 0,013  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/24 6/3 -0,938 ( -0,116)
  0,338 0,080 0,002 - 0,662 0,191 0,013  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 5 2 bar/22 9/8 -0,942 ( -0,121)
  0,365 0,091 0,003 - 0,635 0,252 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Intersting. gnubg wants to play this very differently. But falafel has seen that I'm reluctant to hit openly and exploits that.

Move number 12: juggler to play 11

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O1O ' '4X '|   |4X ' '2X '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 1       |
|3X ' ' '3O '|   |3O '2O1X2O1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 147, juggler 131
Position ID: jOfBASRmzsEFIA Match ID: cIlkAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves 8/5 6/5

Alert: missed double ( -0,179)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,432(Money: +0,437)
 0,635 0,252 0,009 - 0,365 0,091 0,003
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.Double, take +0,942 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,058
3.No double +0,763 -0,179
Proper cube action:Double, take

 

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,077)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 4/3*(2) 2/1*(2) +0,947
  0,681 0,362 0,007 - 0,319 0,086 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 2 2 8/5 6/5 +0,870 ( -0,077)
  0,666 0,239 0,009 - 0,334 0,081 0,003  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 24/23 14/13 4/3*(2) +0,787 ( -0,160)
  0,632 0,220 0,008 - 0,368 0,096 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 8/7(2) 4/3*(2) +0,748 ( -0,199)
  0,629 0,257 0,010 - 0,371 0,111 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 14/13 8/7(3) +0,745 ( -0,202)
  0,626 0,202 0,007 - 0,374 0,092 0,002  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
And he is vindicated! I should have hit here. I thought I'm ahead so I can play less risky, and the builders I need to finish the blitz are too far away. I may have been too timid. Not my style normally, is it :-).

The cube: I still don't see the urgency to cube here the way gnubg does, sorry. But that's probably because I didn't want to move the proper moves, either ;-).

Move number 13: falafelBG to play 12

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O1O ' '4X '|   |4X ' '2X '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 2       | 1 |                 |
|3X ' ' '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 147, juggler 127
Position ID: ZpvBBSCM58EBJA Match ID: MIFoAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 13/11*/10

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,492(Money: -0,496)
 0,334 0,081 0,003 - 0,666 0,239 0,009
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,870 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,870
3.Double, take -1,965 -1,095
Proper cube action:No double, take (36,9%)

 

Alert: very bad move ( -0,220)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/22 6/5 -0,773
  0,350 0,065 0,001 - 0,650 0,146 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/22 8/7 -0,835 ( -0,062)
  0,335 0,065 0,001 - 0,665 0,146 0,004  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
• 3 2 13/11*/10 -0,992 ( -0,220)
  0,368 0,111 0,005 - 0,632 0,275 0,017  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 13/11* 8/7 -1,000 ( -0,227)
  0,347 0,107 0,004 - 0,653 0,329 0,031  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/11* 6/5 -1,000 ( -0,227)
  0,348 0,102 0,004 - 0,652 0,334 0,031  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Annotation
Again I think falafel felt safer against me than he would have against gnubg, so covering the 22 didn't seem as urgent.

Move number 14: juggler to play 35

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O '1X '4X '|   |4X ' '2X '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 5       |
|2X ' ' '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 144, juggler 138
Position ID: jOeJASRmm8EBUA Match ID: cIl1AWAAAAAA

• juggler moves bar/20 13/10

Alert: missed double ( -0,214)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,438(Money: +0,441)
 0,632 0,275 0,017 - 0,368 0,111 0,005
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.Double, take +0,992 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,008
3.No double +0,778 -0,214
Proper cube action:Double, take

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 bar/20 13/10 +0,723
  0,604 0,234 0,013 - 0,396 0,126 0,007  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 bar/20 24/21 +0,703 ( -0,019)
  0,606 0,242 0,019 - 0,394 0,137 0,005  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 bar/20 8/5 +0,588 ( -0,135)
  0,569 0,232 0,013 - 0,431 0,141 0,008  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 bar/20 6/3* +0,230 ( -0,493)
  0,511 0,221 0,014 - 0,489 0,203 0,018  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 bar/20 4/1* +0,365 ( -0,357)
  0,523 0,224 0,012 - 0,477 0,178 0,010  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Annotation
It didn't occur to me to cube here, admittedly.

Move number 15: falafelBG to play 14

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X '4X '|   |4X1O '2X '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 4       | 1 |                 |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 144, juggler 130
Position ID: ZpuJASGM54kBJA Match ID: MIFwAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 6/5*/1*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,323(Money: -0,323)
 0,396 0,126 0,007 - 0,604 0,234 0,013
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,723 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,723
3.Double, take -1,846 -1,123
Proper cube action:No double, take (39,5%)

 

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,319)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 6/5*/1* -1,000
  0,371 0,135 0,005 - 0,629 0,298 0,024  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 10/5* -1,000 ( +0,000)
  0,336 0,099 0,004 - 0,664 0,318 0,021  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 8/4 6/5* -1,000 ( +0,000)
  0,331 0,113 0,007 - 0,669 0,442 0,083  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 6/1* -1,024 ( -0,024)
  0,289 0,079 0,002 - 0,711 0,357 0,031  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 13/9 10/9 -1,053 ( -0,053)
  0,265 0,071 0,004 - 0,735 0,389 0,026  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

Move number 16: juggler to play 33

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '1X '4X '|   |3X ' '2X '1X|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 3       |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 2O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 139, juggler 136
Position ID: GeeJASRmm4kBYA Match ID: cIltAWAAAAAA

• juggler cannot move

Alert: missed double ( -0,220)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,440(Money: +0,441)
 0,629 0,298 0,024 - 0,371 0,135 0,005
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.Double, pass +1,000 
2.Double, take +1,035 +0,035
3.No double +0,780 -0,220
Proper cube action:Double, pass

 

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,585)

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Annotation
Saame here. falafel surely was happy that I didn't cube... I'm glad I didn't too.

Move number 17: falafelBG to play 52

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X '4X '|   |3X ' '2X '1X|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 2       | 1 |                 |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 2O|                   |
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 139, juggler 136
Position ID: ZpuJAWAZ54kBJA Match ID: MIFqAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 8/1

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,011(Money: +0,001)
 0,487 0,238 0,011 - 0,513 0,211 0,013
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,278 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,278
3.Double, take -1,626 -1,348
Proper cube action:No double, take (51,3%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 8/1 -0,116
  0,519 0,274 0,010 - 0,481 0,189 0,011  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 24/22 6/1 -0,144 ( -0,028)
  0,500 0,237 0,008 - 0,500 0,148 0,006  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 13/11 6/1 -0,324 ( -0,208)
  0,478 0,242 0,008 - 0,522 0,219 0,021  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 2 10/8 6/1 -0,419 ( -0,304)
  0,450 0,188 0,006 - 0,550 0,206 0,009  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 0 24/22 8/3 -0,685 ( -0,570)
  0,394 0,140 0,005 - 0,606 0,203 0,011  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 18: juggler to play 12

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '1X '3X '|   |3X ' '2X '2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 2       |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 2O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 132, juggler 136
Position ID: M86JASRmm4kBYA Match ID: cIloAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves bar/23

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,104(Money: -0,121)
 0,481 0,189 0,011 - 0,519 0,274 0,010
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,116 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,884
3.Double, take +0,041 -0,075
Proper cube action:No double, take (7,8%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 0 bar/23 +0,151
  0,487 0,186 0,011 - 0,513 0,261 0,012  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 19: falafelBG to play 13

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X '3X '|   |3X ' '2X1O2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 3       | 1 |                 |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 132, juggler 134
Position ID: ZpuJAUgzzokBJA Match ID: MIFsAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 8/5 6/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,079(Money: +0,093)
 0,509 0,250 0,012 - 0,491 0,180 0,007
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,145 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,145
3.Double, take -1,229 -1,084
Proper cube action:No double, take (48,6%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 0 8/5 6/5 -0,110
  0,530 0,261 0,012 - 0,470 0,192 0,012  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  2 0 10/7 8/7 -0,436 ( -0,325)
  0,452 0,185 0,006 - 0,548 0,217 0,009  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  3 0 10/6 -0,565 ( -0,455)
  0,429 0,167 0,006 - 0,571 0,224 0,010  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  4 0 6/2* -0,692 ( -0,582)
  0,428 0,212 0,006 - 0,572 0,275 0,025  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 10/9 6/3 -0,848 ( -0,738)
  0,389 0,146 0,004 - 0,611 0,263 0,016  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 20: juggler to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '1X '2X '|   |2X2X '2X1O2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 1       |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 128, juggler 134
Position ID: M5uJASRmm4kBSA Match ID: cAlnAWAAAAAA

• juggler cannot move

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,122(Money: -0,138)
 0,470 0,187 0,011 - 0,530 0,263 0,012
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,079 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,921
3.Double, take -0,007 -0,086
Proper cube action:No double, take (8,5%)

 

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,392)

# Ply Move Equity
   Cannot move 

Move number 21: falafelBG to play 15

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X '2X '|   |2X2X '2X1O2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|       1 5       | 1 |                 |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 128, juggler 134
Position ID: ZpuJAUgzm4kBJA Match ID: MIF0AWAAAAAA

• falafelBG moves 8/2*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0,385(Money: +0,409)
 0,598 0,340 0,017 - 0,402 0,138 0,006
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0,256 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,744
3.Double, take -0,339 -0,596
Proper cube action:No double, take (44,5%)

 

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,316)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 8/2* +0,074
  0,560 0,374 0,013 - 0,440 0,204 0,022  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 2 13/8 10/9 -0,165 ( -0,239)
  0,503 0,261 0,011 - 0,497 0,201 0,014  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 2 10/4 -0,294 ( -0,368)
  0,484 0,257 0,011 - 0,516 0,228 0,015  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 0 10/5 8/7 -0,350 ( -0,424)
  0,488 0,271 0,012 - 0,512 0,251 0,025  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  5 0 13/7 -0,383 ( -0,457)
  0,486 0,260 0,012 - 0,514 0,255 0,029  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 22: juggler to play 43

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '1X '1X '|   |2X2X '2X1X2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 3       |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 2O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 122, juggler 136
Position ID: azaJASRmm4kBYA Match ID: cAluAWAAAAAA

• juggler moves bar/21

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0,256(Money: -0,281)
 0,440 0,204 0,022 - 0,560 0,374 0,013
Cubeful equities:
 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double -0,074 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +1,074
3.Double, take -0,136 -0,062
Proper cube action:No double, take (5,4%)

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 0 bar/21 -0,116
  0,428 0,180 0,012 - 0,572 0,390 0,021  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

Move number 23: falafelBG on roll, cube decision?

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X '1X '|   |2X2X1O2X1X2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |                 |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 122, juggler 132
Position ID: ZpuJAUJrNokBJA Match ID: MAFgAWAAAAAA

• falafelBG doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0,625)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0,392(Money: +0,464)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0,367 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,633
3.Double, take -0,258 -0,625
Proper cube action:No double, take (49,7%)
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0,6010,4010,013-0,3990,1430,010 +0,392 +0,367
Standard error0,0020,0030,001-0,0020,0020,001 0,007 0,014
Player juggler owns 2-cube0,6060,3940,024-0,3940,1380,011 +0,210 -0,258
Standard error0,0030,0050,005-0,0030,0030,001 0,020 0,032
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
499 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858303510 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0,32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

Move number 24: falafelBG doubles to 2

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '1X '1X '|   |2X2X1O2X1X2X|
|                   |   |                   |
|       [2]       |   |                 |
|2X '1O '2O '|   |2O2O2O1X2O1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: falafelBG 122, juggler 132
Position ID: ZpuJAUJrNokBJA Match ID: MBlgAWAAAAAA

• juggler rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -1,258)!

Alert: wrong double ( -0,625)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0,392(Money: +0,464)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0,367 
2.Double, pass +1,000 +0,633
3.Double, take -0,258 -0,625
Proper cube action:No double, take (49,7%)
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0,6010,4010,013-0,3990,1430,010 +0,392 +0,367
Standard error0,0020,0030,001-0,0020,0020,001 0,007 0,014
Player juggler owns 2-cube0,6060,3940,024-0,3940,1380,011 +0,210 -0,258
Standard error0,0030,0050,005-0,0030,0030,001 0,020 0,032
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
499 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858303510 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0,32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 


Annotation
Funny. Pity to misread a position like that.

This is a key moment in this match; my position is much stronger than I think, and falafel knows that (what the position is like and what I think about it). He said "trick cube" after I had passed, and I didn't see that I blundered even then. (I have a hard time recognizing it even now, no, really.) So falafel "blundered" on purpose because he felt I would pass here, and rightly so. This cube is a 0.600 blunder. Distributed over the 140 unforced moves it alone accounts for more than 4 mp/move of gnubg's estimated error rate for falafel.

As for the pass: I have made more than one cube error > 1.0 emg in my life, but I think none of them were incorrect *passes* -- I usually *take* too much. This 1.2 (!!) mistake accounts for about 8 mp/move of my errors, so the rest of the match I didn't play too badly. Alas, it didn't matter.

So why did I pass this? I looked at falafel's rolls that cover, and there were many: any 6; 33; 42; 51; 53; 44; 22; 11 would put another one on the bar and maybe allow him to move the blot away. 43 would pick my 3rd blot up. That's 21 good rolls, some of them catastrophic, all of them giving him good gammon chances. 21 covering rolls is not *that* much, but I need to hit to get back into the game. He may pick up my third checker. It all seems pretty doomed.

I obviously underestimate that he's also vulnerable (he has 4 blots on the board!) and will still need to escape with numbers that duplicate with covering and hitting. My board is also in good shape.

But still ;-).

Later note: A rollout shows that the 2-ply ealuation was basically correct; the take is still a 1.2 error. In a money game, btw, the cube offer would be correct (and the pass would be a 0.5 error); it's the match score that makes the cube a blunder here.

falafelBG wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 3
PlayerfalafelBGjuggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves 11 11
Unforced moves 11 7
Unmarked moves 9 8
Moves marked doubtful 0 2
Moves marked bad 1 0
Moves marked very bad 1 1
Error total EMG (MWC) -0,357 ( -1,574%) -0,434 ( -1,912%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -32,5 ( -0,143%) -62,0 ( -0,273%)
Chequerplay rating Beginner Awful!
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 0 0
Rolls marked lucky 1 2
Rolls unmarked 8 7
Rolls marked unlucky 2 2
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck total EMG (MWC) -0,876 ( -3,861%) -0,278 ( -1,224%)
Luck rate mEMG (MWC) -79,6 ( -0,351%) -25,2 ( -0,111%)
Luck rating Go to bed Bad dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 11 12
Close or actual cube decisions 1 12
Doubles 1 0
Takes 0 0
Passes 0 1
Missed doubles below CP (EMG (MWC)) 0 2 (-0,394 ( -1,736%))
Missed doubles above CP (EMG (MWC)) 0 1 (-0,220 ( -0,972%))
Wrong doubles below DP (EMG (MWC)) 1 (-0,625 ( -2,756%)) 0
Wrong doubles above TG (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong takes (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong passes (EMG (MWC)) 0 1 (-1,258 ( -5,547%))
Error total EMG (MWC) -0,625 ( -2,756%) -1,872 ( -8,254%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -625,2 ( -2,756%) -156,0 ( -0,688%)
Cube decision rating Awful! Awful!
Overall statistics
Error total EMG (MWC) -0,982 ( -4,330%) -2,306 (-10,166%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -81,9 ( -0,361%) -121,4 ( -0,535%)
Snowie error rate -44,7 ( +0,000%) -104,8 ( +0,000%)
Overall rating Awful! Awful!
Actual result +5,29% -5,29%
Luck adjusted result +7,93% -7,93%
Luck based FIBS rating diff. +83,75
Error based abs. FIBS rating 1179,0 1233,6
Chequerplay errors rating loss 360,9 689,1
Cube errors rating loss 510,1 127,3

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